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Title: Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Abstract

The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 % of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research.

Authors:
; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565547
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 48; Journal Issue: 11-12; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-Verlag
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Citation Formats

Hall, Richard J., Jones, Julie M., Hanna, Edward, Scaife, Adam A., and Erdélyi, Róbert. Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0.
Hall, Richard J., Jones, Julie M., Hanna, Edward, Scaife, Adam A., & Erdélyi, Róbert. Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability. United States. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0.
Hall, Richard J., Jones, Julie M., Hanna, Edward, Scaife, Adam A., and Erdélyi, Róbert. Wed . "Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability". United States. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0.
@article{osti_1565547,
title = {Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability},
author = {Hall, Richard J. and Jones, Julie M. and Hanna, Edward and Scaife, Adam A. and Erdélyi, Róbert},
abstractNote = {The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 % of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
issn = {0930-7575},
number = 11-12,
volume = 48,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {8}
}

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