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Title: Quantifying the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in mediating near-surface temperature persistence: Land-Atmosphere Feedback Mediation of Temperature Persistence

Abstract

Weather persistence from month to month is an important source of predictability on the intraseasonal time‐scale. Persistence in the lower troposphere is thought to be mainly due to dynamical feedbacks between the atmosphere and physical variables at or below the surface. Many recent improvements of dynamical seasonal forecasting models have been due to better initialisations and representations of the lower boundary. While many physical mechanisms that mediate persistence are well‐understood, they have not previously been considered simultaneously in a causal framework. Here we use linear methods that are widely used in the field of causal inference in statistics to identify mediators between persistent near‐surface temperature anomalies from one month to the next. The variables considered are soil temperature and soil moisture at four levels, and snow depth. In Northern Europe, the high persistence of temperature in summer is shown to be mediated mainly by soil temperature anomalies. The high persistence in winter is mediated by snow depth and soil moisture in addition to soil temperature. The annual cycles of persistence are also investigated for the mid‐ and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, confirming the important role of soil temperature in summer. Snow depth is an important mediator when, andmore » where, its interannual variability is large: in winter at midlatitudes and in spring and autumn at high latitudes. The novel contribution of this study is the introduction of a linear causal methodology and a holistic approach that allows quantification and comparison of the different roles of soil variables and snow depth in mediating near‐surface temperature persistence.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen Norway
  2. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565543
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 143; Journal Issue: 704; Journal ID: ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher:
Royal Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Citation Formats

Kolstad, E. W., Barnes, E. A., and Sobolowski, S. P. Quantifying the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in mediating near-surface temperature persistence: Land-Atmosphere Feedback Mediation of Temperature Persistence. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/qj.3033.
Kolstad, E. W., Barnes, E. A., & Sobolowski, S. P. Quantifying the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in mediating near-surface temperature persistence: Land-Atmosphere Feedback Mediation of Temperature Persistence. United States. doi:10.1002/qj.3033.
Kolstad, E. W., Barnes, E. A., and Sobolowski, S. P. Sat . "Quantifying the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in mediating near-surface temperature persistence: Land-Atmosphere Feedback Mediation of Temperature Persistence". United States. doi:10.1002/qj.3033.
@article{osti_1565543,
title = {Quantifying the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in mediating near-surface temperature persistence: Land-Atmosphere Feedback Mediation of Temperature Persistence},
author = {Kolstad, E. W. and Barnes, E. A. and Sobolowski, S. P.},
abstractNote = {Weather persistence from month to month is an important source of predictability on the intraseasonal time‐scale. Persistence in the lower troposphere is thought to be mainly due to dynamical feedbacks between the atmosphere and physical variables at or below the surface. Many recent improvements of dynamical seasonal forecasting models have been due to better initialisations and representations of the lower boundary. While many physical mechanisms that mediate persistence are well‐understood, they have not previously been considered simultaneously in a causal framework. Here we use linear methods that are widely used in the field of causal inference in statistics to identify mediators between persistent near‐surface temperature anomalies from one month to the next. The variables considered are soil temperature and soil moisture at four levels, and snow depth. In Northern Europe, the high persistence of temperature in summer is shown to be mediated mainly by soil temperature anomalies. The high persistence in winter is mediated by snow depth and soil moisture in addition to soil temperature. The annual cycles of persistence are also investigated for the mid‐ and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, confirming the important role of soil temperature in summer. Snow depth is an important mediator when, and where, its interannual variability is large: in winter at midlatitudes and in spring and autumn at high latitudes. The novel contribution of this study is the introduction of a linear causal methodology and a holistic approach that allows quantification and comparison of the different roles of soil variables and snow depth in mediating near‐surface temperature persistence.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3033},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
issn = {0035-9009},
number = 704,
volume = 143,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {4}
}

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