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Title: Attributing observed Greenland responses to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings

Abstract

We attribute climate variability in four independent reconstructions of Greenland-average temperature and precipitation over the twentieth century. The reconstructions exhibit substantial differences in the timing and amplitudes of climate variations. Linear, empirical models of Greenland-average temperature and precipitation variations on multi-decadal timescales are established from a suite of Community Climate System Model 3 simulations of the preindustrial millennium. They are compared against observational reconstructions after being tested against simulations of the industrial and future periods. Empirical estimates of variations over the industrial and future periods are correlated at greater than 0.95 with simulated values. Greenhouse gas increases account for the majority of the temperature and precipitation increases after the mid-1900s. In contrast to the simulations, observed temperatures and precipitation do not increase until the mid-1990s. Thus, the empirical models over-predict the response to greenhouse gases over the twentieth century. We conclude that CCSM3 is not capturing processes that are proving important to Greenland surface conditions. Furthermore, modes of North Atlantic variability exhibit opposite relationships with some observations compared with the simulations. In those cases, reversing the sign of this component of variability yields significant correlations between the estimated and observed accumulation values.

Authors:
;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565414
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 9-10; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-Verlag
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Citation Formats

Andres, Heather J., and Peltier, W. R. Attributing observed Greenland responses to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2514-4.
Andres, Heather J., & Peltier, W. R. Attributing observed Greenland responses to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. United States. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2514-4.
Andres, Heather J., and Peltier, W. R. Tue . "Attributing observed Greenland responses to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings". United States. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2514-4.
@article{osti_1565414,
title = {Attributing observed Greenland responses to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings},
author = {Andres, Heather J. and Peltier, W. R.},
abstractNote = {We attribute climate variability in four independent reconstructions of Greenland-average temperature and precipitation over the twentieth century. The reconstructions exhibit substantial differences in the timing and amplitudes of climate variations. Linear, empirical models of Greenland-average temperature and precipitation variations on multi-decadal timescales are established from a suite of Community Climate System Model 3 simulations of the preindustrial millennium. They are compared against observational reconstructions after being tested against simulations of the industrial and future periods. Empirical estimates of variations over the industrial and future periods are correlated at greater than 0.95 with simulated values. Greenhouse gas increases account for the majority of the temperature and precipitation increases after the mid-1900s. In contrast to the simulations, observed temperatures and precipitation do not increase until the mid-1990s. Thus, the empirical models over-predict the response to greenhouse gases over the twentieth century. We conclude that CCSM3 is not capturing processes that are proving important to Greenland surface conditions. Furthermore, modes of North Atlantic variability exhibit opposite relationships with some observations compared with the simulations. In those cases, reversing the sign of this component of variability yields significant correlations between the estimated and observed accumulation values.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2514-4},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
issn = {0930-7575},
number = 9-10,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {5}
}

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