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Title: Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures

Abstract

Multi-model simulations show a post-Pinatubo eruption sequence of Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that includes a La Niña-like pattern the third northern winter after an eruption, opposite in sign to what was observed after Pinatubo. This leads to the loss of hindcast skill for years in the 1990s affected by the Pinatubo eruption because the post-eruption internal variability of the climate system did not match the multi-model forced response. Agung (1963) and El Chichón (1982) happened to have post-eruption Pacific SST sequences more similar to the multi-model response and thus do not degrade prediction skill as measured by anomaly pattern correlation in the hindcasts. Thus, decadal hindcast skill is reduced if the post-eruption randomly occurring internal El Niño variability in the observations deviates from the multi-model forced response that, by definition, averages out internal variability in favor of the forced response.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [2]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA
  2. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Kensington New South Wales Australia
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States); UT-Battelle LLC/ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN (Unted States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565402
DOE Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725; FC02-97ER62402
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: 24; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Geology

Citation Formats

Meehl, Gerald A., Teng, Haiyan, Maher, Nicola, and England, Matthew H. Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1002/2015gl066608.
Meehl, Gerald A., Teng, Haiyan, Maher, Nicola, & England, Matthew H. Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures. United States. doi:10.1002/2015gl066608.
Meehl, Gerald A., Teng, Haiyan, Maher, Nicola, and England, Matthew H. Sat . "Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures". United States. doi:10.1002/2015gl066608.
@article{osti_1565402,
title = {Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures},
author = {Meehl, Gerald A. and Teng, Haiyan and Maher, Nicola and England, Matthew H.},
abstractNote = {Multi-model simulations show a post-Pinatubo eruption sequence of Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that includes a La Niña-like pattern the third northern winter after an eruption, opposite in sign to what was observed after Pinatubo. This leads to the loss of hindcast skill for years in the 1990s affected by the Pinatubo eruption because the post-eruption internal variability of the climate system did not match the multi-model forced response. Agung (1963) and El Chichón (1982) happened to have post-eruption Pacific SST sequences more similar to the multi-model response and thus do not degrade prediction skill as measured by anomaly pattern correlation in the hindcasts. Thus, decadal hindcast skill is reduced if the post-eruption randomly occurring internal El Niño variability in the observations deviates from the multi-model forced response that, by definition, averages out internal variability in favor of the forced response.},
doi = {10.1002/2015gl066608},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
issn = {0094-8276},
number = 24,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {12}
}

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