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Title: Climate Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Derived from Twentieth-Century Reanalysis

Journal Article · · Journal of Climate
 [1];  [1]
  1. Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education
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Whereas some studies linked the enhanced tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the North Atlantic basin to the ongoing global warming, other studies attributed it to the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, the present study reveals the distinctive spatial patterns associated with the influences of the AMO and global warming on TC formation in the North Atlantic basin. Two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns are identified in the climate change of TC formation on time scales longer than interannual. The first pattern is associated with the AMO and its spatial pattern shows the basin-scale enhancement of TC formation during the AMO positive phase. The second pattern is associated with global warming, showing enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic (5°–20°N, 15°–40°W) and reduced TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea. In the warm AMO phase, the basinwide decrease in vertical wind shear and increases in midlevel relative humidity and maximum potential intensity (MPI) favor the basinwide enhancement of TC formation. Global warming suppresses TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea through enhancing vertical wind shear and reducing midlevel relative humidity and MPI. The enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic is due mainly to a local increase in MPI or sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a close relationship between the Atlantic SST and TC activity over the past decades.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI ID:
1565235
Journal Information:
Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 22; ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 8 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (2)

Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development journal October 2015
Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on United States Major Hurricane Landfall Frequency journal May 2019

Figures / Tables (9)

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Tropical cyclones
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