Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4 MIP Model Intercomparison

Friedlingstein, Pierre; Cox, P.; Betts, R.; Bopp, L.; von Bloh, W.; Brovkin, V.; Cadule, P.; Doney, S.; Eby, M.; Fung, I.; Bala, G.; John, J.; Jones, C.; Joos, F.; Kato, T.; Kawamiya, M.; Knorr, W.; Lindsay, K.; Matthews, H. D.; Raddatz, T.; Rayner, P.; Reick, C.; Roeckner, E.; Schnitzler, K. -G.; Schnur, R.; Strassmann, K.; Weaver, A. J.; Yoshikawa, C.; Zeng, N.

doi:10.1175/jcli3800.1

Title: Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C⁴ MIP Model Intercomparison

Journal Article · Sat Jul 15 00:00:00 EDT 2006 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3800.1· OSTI ID:1564627

Friedlingstein, Pierre ^[1]; Cox, P. ^[2]; Betts, R. ^[3]; Bopp, L. ^[1]; von Bloh, W. ^[4]; Brovkin, V. ^[4]; Cadule, P. ^[5]; Doney, S. ^[6]; Eby, M. ^[7]; Fung, I. ^[7]; Bala, G. ^[8]; John, J. ^[9]; Jones, C. ^[3]; Joos, F. ^[10]; Kato, T. ^[11]; Kawamiya, M. ^[11]; Knorr, W. ^[12]; Lindsay, K. ^[13]; Matthews, H. D. ^[14]; Raddatz, T. ^[15] more »

Inst. Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. for Sciences of Climate and Environment (LSCE)
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester (United Kingdom)
Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), Paris (France). Inst. Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)
Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
Univ. of Victoria, BC (Canada)
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Univ. of Bern (Switzerland)
Frontier Research Center for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan)
Bristol Univ. (United Kingdom)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Victoria, BC (Canada); Univ. of Calgary, AB (Canada)
Max Planck Society, Jena (Germany). Max Planck Inst. for Biogeochemistry
Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO₂ will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO₂ varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO₂ levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. Yet, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Furthermore, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

OSTI ID:: 1564627

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 14; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 2071 works

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Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.; Frölicher, T. L. Biogeosciences, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-515-2009	journal	January 2009
Nutrient limitation reduces land carbon uptake in simulations with a model of combined carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling Goll, D. S.; Brovkin, V.; Parida, B. R. Biogeosciences, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3547-2012	journal	January 2012
Projections of leaf area index in earth system models Mahowald, Natalie; Lo, Fiona; Zheng, Yun Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-211-2016	journal	January 2016
Evaluating the E3SM land model version 0 (ELMv0) at a temperate forest site using flux and soil water measurements Liang, Junyi; Wang, Gangsheng; Ricciuto, Daniel M. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1601-2019	journal	January 2019
The software architecture of climate models: a graphical comparison of CMIP5 and EMICAR5 configurations Alexander, K.; Easterbrook, S. M. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1221-2015	journal	January 2015
Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia Kondo, Masayuki; Ichii, Kazuhito; Patra, Prabir K. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000082232	text	January 2018
Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000083684	text	January 2018
The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) v1.0: an extensible and fully documented open-source re-implementation of the Bern reduced-form model for global carbon cycle–climate simulations Strassmann, Kuno M.; Joos, Fortunat Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.127677	text	January 2018
Importance of water mass formation regions for the air-sea CO ₂ flux estimate in the Southern Ocean : AIR-SEA CO Barbero, Leticia; Boutin, Jacqueline; Merlivat, Liliane Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 25, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gb003818	journal	February 2011
Modeling in Earth system science up to and beyond IPCC AR5 Hajima, Tomohiro; Kawamiya, Michio; Watanabe, Michio Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-014-0029-y	journal	December 2014
Nature of Centennial Global Climate Change from Observational Records Anwer, Mohammed American Journal of Climate Change, Vol. 04, Issue 04 https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2015.44027	journal	January 2015
Earth system model simulations show different carbon cycle feedback strengths under glacial and interglacial conditions Adloff, Markus; Reick, Christian H.; Claussen, Martin Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 2, p. 413-425 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-67	journal	April 2018

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