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Title: Understanding Future Safety of Dams in a Changing Climate

Abstract

The safety of critical water infrastructures such as dams that are upstream of population centers and aging is gaining attention due to rapid change to landscape, climate and society. In general, Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is used in the design to ensure public safety of such critical water infrastructures. We demonstrate an approach where PMP can be derived from combining traditional engineering practice and modern climate science. Using the US Pacific Northwest as an example, PMP was computed from an ensemble of earth system models and verified against historical values already used in the design of the aging water infrastructures. Our engineering-climate science approach indicates that PMP in the PNW is likely to increase by 2099 significantly compared to current estimates under a climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), mandating the need for a reevaluation of safety and resilience of these critical infrastructure now rather than later, at least in the US Pacific Northwest.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]
  1. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
  2. University of Washington
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1562726
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-143310
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 100; Journal Issue: 8
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Chen, Xiaodong, and Hossain, Faisal. Understanding Future Safety of Dams in a Changing Climate. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0150.1.
Chen, Xiaodong, & Hossain, Faisal. Understanding Future Safety of Dams in a Changing Climate. United States. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0150.1.
Chen, Xiaodong, and Hossain, Faisal. Wed . "Understanding Future Safety of Dams in a Changing Climate". United States. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0150.1.
@article{osti_1562726,
title = {Understanding Future Safety of Dams in a Changing Climate},
author = {Chen, Xiaodong and Hossain, Faisal},
abstractNote = {The safety of critical water infrastructures such as dams that are upstream of population centers and aging is gaining attention due to rapid change to landscape, climate and society. In general, Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is used in the design to ensure public safety of such critical water infrastructures. We demonstrate an approach where PMP can be derived from combining traditional engineering practice and modern climate science. Using the US Pacific Northwest as an example, PMP was computed from an ensemble of earth system models and verified against historical values already used in the design of the aging water infrastructures. Our engineering-climate science approach indicates that PMP in the PNW is likely to increase by 2099 significantly compared to current estimates under a climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), mandating the need for a reevaluation of safety and resilience of these critical infrastructure now rather than later, at least in the US Pacific Northwest.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0150.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = 8,
volume = 100,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {8}
}