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Title: Quantifying the Biophysical and Socioeconomic Drivers of Changes in Forest and Agricultural Land in South and Southeast Asia

Abstract

South and Southeast Asia (SSEA) has been a hotspot for land use and land cover change (LULCC) in the past few decades. The identification and quantification of the drivers of LULCC are crucial for improving our understanding of LULCC trends. So far, the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of forest change have not been quantified at the regional scale, particularly for SSEA. In this study, we quantify the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of forest change on a country-by-country basis in SSEA using an integrated quantitative methodology, which systematically accounts for previously published driver information and regional datasets. We synthesize more than 200 publications to identify the drivers of the forest change at different spatial scales in SSEA. Subsequently, we collect spatially explicit proxy data to represent the identified drivers. We quantify the dynamics of forest and agricultural land from 1992 to 2015 using the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) land cover data developed by the European Space Agency (ESA). A geographically weighted regression method is employed to quantify the spatially heterogeneous drivers of forest change. Our results show that socioeconomic drivers are more important than biophysical drivers for the conversion of forest to agricultural land in South Asia and maritime Southeast Asia.more » In contrast, biophysical drivers are more important than socioeconomic drivers for the conversion of agricultural land to forest in maritime Southeast Asia and less important in South Asia. Both biophysical and socioeconomic drivers contribute approximately equally to both changes in the mainland Southeast Asia region. By quantifying the dynamics of forest and agricultural land and the spatially explicit drivers of their changes in SSEA, this study provides a solid foundation for LULCC modeling and projection.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
  2. UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
  3. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1561112
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-136828
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Global Change Biology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 25; Journal Issue: 6
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Xu, Xiaoming, Jain, Atul K., and Calvin, Katherine V. Quantifying the Biophysical and Socioeconomic Drivers of Changes in Forest and Agricultural Land in South and Southeast Asia. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1111/gcb.14611.
Xu, Xiaoming, Jain, Atul K., & Calvin, Katherine V. Quantifying the Biophysical and Socioeconomic Drivers of Changes in Forest and Agricultural Land in South and Southeast Asia. United States. doi:10.1111/gcb.14611.
Xu, Xiaoming, Jain, Atul K., and Calvin, Katherine V. Sat . "Quantifying the Biophysical and Socioeconomic Drivers of Changes in Forest and Agricultural Land in South and Southeast Asia". United States. doi:10.1111/gcb.14611.
@article{osti_1561112,
title = {Quantifying the Biophysical and Socioeconomic Drivers of Changes in Forest and Agricultural Land in South and Southeast Asia},
author = {Xu, Xiaoming and Jain, Atul K. and Calvin, Katherine V.},
abstractNote = {South and Southeast Asia (SSEA) has been a hotspot for land use and land cover change (LULCC) in the past few decades. The identification and quantification of the drivers of LULCC are crucial for improving our understanding of LULCC trends. So far, the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of forest change have not been quantified at the regional scale, particularly for SSEA. In this study, we quantify the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of forest change on a country-by-country basis in SSEA using an integrated quantitative methodology, which systematically accounts for previously published driver information and regional datasets. We synthesize more than 200 publications to identify the drivers of the forest change at different spatial scales in SSEA. Subsequently, we collect spatially explicit proxy data to represent the identified drivers. We quantify the dynamics of forest and agricultural land from 1992 to 2015 using the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) land cover data developed by the European Space Agency (ESA). A geographically weighted regression method is employed to quantify the spatially heterogeneous drivers of forest change. Our results show that socioeconomic drivers are more important than biophysical drivers for the conversion of forest to agricultural land in South Asia and maritime Southeast Asia. In contrast, biophysical drivers are more important than socioeconomic drivers for the conversion of agricultural land to forest in maritime Southeast Asia and less important in South Asia. Both biophysical and socioeconomic drivers contribute approximately equally to both changes in the mainland Southeast Asia region. By quantifying the dynamics of forest and agricultural land and the spatially explicit drivers of their changes in SSEA, this study provides a solid foundation for LULCC modeling and projection.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14611},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
number = 6,
volume = 25,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {6}
}

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