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Title: Transition Dynamics in the Nascent Bioproducts Industry

Abstract

Bioproducts are chemicals derived from a biomass feedstock that can be produced on their own or as biofuel co-products. Historically, bioproduct developers have faced significant barriers in scaling up bioproduct technologies and in bringing bioproducts to market, resulting in a high failure rate for bioproduct development projects. To date, there has been essentially no research done on the factors that lead to a bioproduct successfully capturing market share and why bioproduct projects fail. We address this knowledge gap with a model of the transition dynamics involved in taking a bioproduct technology from applied research to commercial production and the interactions between bioproduct developers, investors providing private funds, and federal government agencies which may provide cost-sharing and production incentives. This model incorporates several novel techniques including stochastic submodels and forecasts of market shares and company performance. Our research objectives are to identify relevant factors and mechanisms that impact bioproduct success and to develop a decision support tool, the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, that can be used by investors, bioproduct developers and government agencies to bring more bioproducts to market and to grow the nascent bioproducts industry.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Bioenergy Technologies Office (EE-3B)
OSTI Identifier:
1548266
Report Number(s):
NREL/PR-6A20-73508
DOE Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Presented at the 37th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 21-25 July 2019, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; bioproducts; valley of death; technology development; investment; commercial production; market share

Citation Formats

Hanes, Rebecca, and Bush, Brian W. Transition Dynamics in the Nascent Bioproducts Industry. United States: N. p., 2019. Web.
Hanes, Rebecca, & Bush, Brian W. Transition Dynamics in the Nascent Bioproducts Industry. United States.
Hanes, Rebecca, and Bush, Brian W. Thu . "Transition Dynamics in the Nascent Bioproducts Industry". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1548266.
@article{osti_1548266,
title = {Transition Dynamics in the Nascent Bioproducts Industry},
author = {Hanes, Rebecca and Bush, Brian W},
abstractNote = {Bioproducts are chemicals derived from a biomass feedstock that can be produced on their own or as biofuel co-products. Historically, bioproduct developers have faced significant barriers in scaling up bioproduct technologies and in bringing bioproducts to market, resulting in a high failure rate for bioproduct development projects. To date, there has been essentially no research done on the factors that lead to a bioproduct successfully capturing market share and why bioproduct projects fail. We address this knowledge gap with a model of the transition dynamics involved in taking a bioproduct technology from applied research to commercial production and the interactions between bioproduct developers, investors providing private funds, and federal government agencies which may provide cost-sharing and production incentives. This model incorporates several novel techniques including stochastic submodels and forecasts of market shares and company performance. Our research objectives are to identify relevant factors and mechanisms that impact bioproduct success and to develop a decision support tool, the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, that can be used by investors, bioproduct developers and government agencies to bring more bioproducts to market and to grow the nascent bioproducts industry.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {8}
}

Conference:
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