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Title: Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract

Investments are often recognized as the ‘lifeblood’ of the global energy system. Low-carbon investments can provide the means for initiating a system transformation, as called for by the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving our understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio needed for transforming the energy system will not be instigated by the current suite of Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward ‘well below 2 °C’ instead requires that low-carbon investments overtake fossil investments globally before 2025 and then continue to grow from there. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked up-scaling in low-carbon capita beyond that demanded by 2 °C. The investment needs for making progress on certain other SDG targets are small relative to those for energy.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6]; ;  [7];  [7];  [8];  [6];  [9];  [10];  [4];  [6]; ORCiD logo [11];  [1];  [3];  [8];  [6] more »;  [10];  [6];  [6];  [6];  [8];  [12];  [6];  [13];  [6] « less
  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  2. University of Tennessee
  3. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts
  4. PBL
  5. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
  6. IIASA
  7. FEEM
  8. The World Bank
  9. NIES, Japan
  10. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
  11. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
  12. JGC
  13. MNP
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1545070
Report Number(s):
PNNL-ACT-SA-10308
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Nature Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 7
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

McCollum, David, Zhou, Wenji, Bertram, Christoph, Sytze de Boer, Harmen, Bosetti, Valentina, Busch, Sebastian, Despres, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fay, Marianne, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gidden, Matthew, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Iyer, Gokul C., Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Nicolas, Claire, Pachauri, Shonali, Parkinson, Simon, Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel, Rafaj, Peter, Rao, Narasimha, Rozenberg, Julie, Schmitz, Andreas, Schoepp, Wolfgang, Van Vuuren, Detlef, and Riahi, Keywan. Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z.
McCollum, David, Zhou, Wenji, Bertram, Christoph, Sytze de Boer, Harmen, Bosetti, Valentina, Busch, Sebastian, Despres, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fay, Marianne, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gidden, Matthew, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Iyer, Gokul C., Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Nicolas, Claire, Pachauri, Shonali, Parkinson, Simon, Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel, Rafaj, Peter, Rao, Narasimha, Rozenberg, Julie, Schmitz, Andreas, Schoepp, Wolfgang, Van Vuuren, Detlef, & Riahi, Keywan. Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. United States. doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z.
McCollum, David, Zhou, Wenji, Bertram, Christoph, Sytze de Boer, Harmen, Bosetti, Valentina, Busch, Sebastian, Despres, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fay, Marianne, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gidden, Matthew, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Iyer, Gokul C., Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Nicolas, Claire, Pachauri, Shonali, Parkinson, Simon, Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel, Rafaj, Peter, Rao, Narasimha, Rozenberg, Julie, Schmitz, Andreas, Schoepp, Wolfgang, Van Vuuren, Detlef, and Riahi, Keywan. Sun . "Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals". United States. doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z.
@article{osti_1545070,
title = {Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals},
author = {McCollum, David and Zhou, Wenji and Bertram, Christoph and Sytze de Boer, Harmen and Bosetti, Valentina and Busch, Sebastian and Despres, Jacques and Drouet, Laurent and Emmerling, Johannes and Fay, Marianne and Fricko, Oliver and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Gidden, Matthew and Harmsen, Mathijs and Huppmann, Daniel and Iyer, Gokul C. and Krey, Volker and Kriegler, Elmar and Nicolas, Claire and Pachauri, Shonali and Parkinson, Simon and Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel and Rafaj, Peter and Rao, Narasimha and Rozenberg, Julie and Schmitz, Andreas and Schoepp, Wolfgang and Van Vuuren, Detlef and Riahi, Keywan},
abstractNote = {Investments are often recognized as the ‘lifeblood’ of the global energy system. Low-carbon investments can provide the means for initiating a system transformation, as called for by the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving our understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio needed for transforming the energy system will not be instigated by the current suite of Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward ‘well below 2 °C’ instead requires that low-carbon investments overtake fossil investments globally before 2025 and then continue to grow from there. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked up-scaling in low-carbon capita beyond that demanded by 2 °C. The investment needs for making progress on certain other SDG targets are small relative to those for energy.},
doi = {10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z},
journal = {Nature Energy},
number = 7,
volume = 3,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {7}
}

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