Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Hannah, Shaun

doi:10.1002/2017EF000734

Title: Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

Journal Article · Thu Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Earth's Future

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000734· OSTI ID:1423391

^[1];

^[1]; Hannah, Shaun ^[2]

NCAS‐Climate University of Reading Reading UK, Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK
Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK

Abstract In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006–2015), over the Asian‐Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more‐frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global‐mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: DE‐AC02‐05CH11231; AC02‐05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1423391

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1423392; OSTI ID: 1544312

Journal Information:: Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Vol. 6 Journal Issue: 3; ISSN 2328-4277

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 62 works

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