skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model

Abstract

The objective of near-term climate prediction is to improve our fore-knowledge, from years to a decade or more in advance, of impactful climate changes that can in general be attributed to a combination of internal and externally forced variability. Predictions initialized using observations of past climate states are tested by comparing their ability to reproduce past climate evolution with that of uninitialized simulations in which the same radiative forcings are applied. A new set of decadal prediction (DP) simulations has recently been completed using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is now available to the community. This new large-ensemble (LE) set (CESM-DPLE) is composed of historical simulations that are integrated forward for 10 years following initialization on 1 November of each year between 1954 and 2015. CESM-DPLE represents the “initialized” counterpart to the widely studied CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE); both simulation sets have 40-member ensembles, and they use identical model code and radiative forcings. Comparing CESM-DPLE to CESM-LE highlights the impacts of initialization on prediction skill and indicates that robust assessment and interpretation of DP skill may require much larger ensembles than current protocols recommend. CESM-DPLE exhibits significant and potentially useful prediction skill for a wide range of fields,more » regions, and time scales, and it shows widespread improvement over simpler benchmark forecasts as well as over a previous initialized system that was submitted to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Finally, the new DP system offers new capabilities that will be of interest to a broad community pursuing Earth system prediction research.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1541807
Grant/Contract Number:  
FC02-97ER62402; AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 99; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; meteorology & atmospheric sciences

Citation Formats

Yeager, S. G., Danabasoglu, G., Rosenbloom, N. A., Strand, W., Bates, S. C., Meehl, G. A., Karspeck, A. R., Lindsay, K., Long, M. C., Teng, H., and Lovenduski, N. S. Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1175/bams-d-17-0098.1.
Yeager, S. G., Danabasoglu, G., Rosenbloom, N. A., Strand, W., Bates, S. C., Meehl, G. A., Karspeck, A. R., Lindsay, K., Long, M. C., Teng, H., & Lovenduski, N. S. Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-17-0098.1
Yeager, S. G., Danabasoglu, G., Rosenbloom, N. A., Strand, W., Bates, S. C., Meehl, G. A., Karspeck, A. R., Lindsay, K., Long, M. C., Teng, H., and Lovenduski, N. S. Tue . "Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-17-0098.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1541807.
@article{osti_1541807,
title = {Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model},
author = {Yeager, S. G. and Danabasoglu, G. and Rosenbloom, N. A. and Strand, W. and Bates, S. C. and Meehl, G. A. and Karspeck, A. R. and Lindsay, K. and Long, M. C. and Teng, H. and Lovenduski, N. S.},
abstractNote = {The objective of near-term climate prediction is to improve our fore-knowledge, from years to a decade or more in advance, of impactful climate changes that can in general be attributed to a combination of internal and externally forced variability. Predictions initialized using observations of past climate states are tested by comparing their ability to reproduce past climate evolution with that of uninitialized simulations in which the same radiative forcings are applied. A new set of decadal prediction (DP) simulations has recently been completed using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is now available to the community. This new large-ensemble (LE) set (CESM-DPLE) is composed of historical simulations that are integrated forward for 10 years following initialization on 1 November of each year between 1954 and 2015. CESM-DPLE represents the “initialized” counterpart to the widely studied CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE); both simulation sets have 40-member ensembles, and they use identical model code and radiative forcings. Comparing CESM-DPLE to CESM-LE highlights the impacts of initialization on prediction skill and indicates that robust assessment and interpretation of DP skill may require much larger ensembles than current protocols recommend. CESM-DPLE exhibits significant and potentially useful prediction skill for a wide range of fields, regions, and time scales, and it shows widespread improvement over simpler benchmark forecasts as well as over a previous initialized system that was submitted to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Finally, the new DP system offers new capabilities that will be of interest to a broad community pursuing Earth system prediction research.},
doi = {10.1175/bams-d-17-0098.1},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1541807}, journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
issn = {0003-0007},
number = 9,
volume = 99,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {10}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 41 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referencing / citing this record:

Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change
journal, July 2019


Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change
journal, July 2019


Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system
journal, November 2018


Mechanisms of Low-Frequency Oxygen Variability in the North Pacific
journal, February 2019


Attributing the U.S. Southwest's Recent Shift Into Drier Conditions
journal, June 2018


Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C
journal, November 2018


Key Role of Internal Ocean Dynamics in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability During the Last Half Century
journal, December 2018


A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions
journal, March 2019


Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions Using a Dynamic Model of Drift
journal, August 2019


The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)
journal, February 2020


Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean–jet stream connection
journal, July 2019


Robust skill of decadal climate predictions
journal, May 2019


Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink
journal, May 2019


Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector
journal, November 2019


High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system
journal, December 2019


Predicting the variable ocean carbon sink
journal, April 2019


Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake
journal, January 2019