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Title: Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models: Testing Earthquake Cycle Models

Abstract

A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM<~ 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM >~ 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscositymore » ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
  2. U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Krell Institute, Ames, IA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1532980
Grant/Contract Number:  
FG02-97ER25308
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 23; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Geology

Citation Formats

DeVries, Phoebe M. R., and Evans, Eileen L. Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models: Testing Earthquake Cycle Models. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1002/2016gl070681.
DeVries, Phoebe M. R., & Evans, Eileen L. Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models: Testing Earthquake Cycle Models. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070681
DeVries, Phoebe M. R., and Evans, Eileen L. 2016. "Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models: Testing Earthquake Cycle Models". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070681. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1532980.
@article{osti_1532980,
title = {Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models: Testing Earthquake Cycle Models},
author = {DeVries, Phoebe M. R. and Evans, Eileen L.},
abstractNote = {A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM<~ 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM >~ 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.},
doi = {10.1002/2016gl070681},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1532980}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
issn = {0094-8276},
number = 23,
volume = 43,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Sep 23 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Fri Sep 23 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

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