skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models: Testing Earthquake Cycle Models

Abstract

A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities η M<~ 4.0 × 10 19 Pa s and η M >~ 4.6 × 10 20 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basismore » of transient Kelvin viscosity η K. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
  2. U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Krell Institute, Ames, IA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1532980
Grant/Contract Number:  
FG02-97ER25308
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 23; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Geology

Citation Formats

DeVries, Phoebe M. R., and Evans, Eileen L. Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models: Testing Earthquake Cycle Models. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1002/2016gl070681.
DeVries, Phoebe M. R., & Evans, Eileen L. Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models: Testing Earthquake Cycle Models. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070681
DeVries, Phoebe M. R., and Evans, Eileen L. Fri . "Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models: Testing Earthquake Cycle Models". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070681. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1532980.
@article{osti_1532980,
title = {Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models: Testing Earthquake Cycle Models},
author = {DeVries, Phoebe M. R. and Evans, Eileen L.},
abstractNote = {A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM<~ 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM >~ 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.},
doi = {10.1002/2016gl070681},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1532980}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
issn = {0094-8276},
number = 23,
volume = 43,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {9}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 1 work
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Philippine fault: A key for Philippine kinematics
journal, January 1991


Dynamics of Izmit Earthquake Postseismic Deformation and Loading of the Duzce Earthquake Hypocenter
journal, February 2002


Time-Dependent Distributed Afterslip on and Deep below the Izmit Earthquake Rupture
journal, February 2002


Maximum‐Likelihood Recurrence Parameters and Conditional Probability of a Ground‐Rupturing Earthquake on the Southern Alpine Fault, South Island, New Zealand
journal, January 2015


Slip rate on the Dead Sea transform fault in northern Araba valley (Jordan)
journal, September 2000


Postseismic Deformation near the Izmit Earthquake (17 August 1999, M 7.5) Rupture Zone
journal, February 2002


Postseismic relaxation across the Central Nevada Seismic Belt
journal, January 2003


Slip rate and locking depth from GPS profiles across the southern Dead Sea Transform
journal, January 2008


Confirmation of Arabia plate slow motion by new GPS data in Yemen: ARABIA PLATE MOTION
journal, February 2006


Geodetic evidence for a low slip rate in the Altyn Tagh fault system
journal, March 2000


12,000-Year-Long Record of 10 to 13 Paleoearthquakes on the Yammouneh Fault, Levant Fault System, Lebanon
journal, June 2007


Seven years of postseismic deformation following the 1999, M = 7.4 and M = 7.2, Izmit-Düzce, Turkey earthquake sequence
journal, January 2009


Rapid slip along the central Altyn Tagh Fault: Morphochronologic evidence from Cherchen He and Sulamu Tagh: RAPID SLIP ON THE ALTYN TAGH FAULT
journal, June 2004


Late Quaternary activity along the Lone Pine fault, eastern California
journal, May 1988


Measurement of interseismic strain across the Haiyuan fault (Gansu, China), by InSAR
journal, November 2008


Izmit earthquake postseismic deformation and dynamics of the North Anatolian Fault Zone
journal, January 2009


The velocity field along the San Andreas Fault in central and southern California
journal, January 1991


Slip rates and off-fault deformation in Southern California inferred from GPS data and models: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIP RATES
journal, October 2013


Global Positioning System constraints on fault slip rates in the Death Valley Region, California and Nevada
journal, December 1997


Inference of Multiple Earthquake-Cycle Relaxation Timescales from Irregular Geodetic Sampling of Interseismic Deformation
journal, September 2013


Reconciling viscoelastic models of postseismic and interseismic deformation: Effects of viscous shear zones and finite length ruptures: HEARN AND THATCHER
journal, April 2015


Slip rate gradients along the eastern Kunlun fault: KUNLUN FAULT, SLIP RATE, TIBET
journal, March 2007


Slip rates of the Karakorum fault, Ladakh, India, determined using cosmic ray exposure dating of debris flows and moraines: KARAKORUM FAULT SLIP RATES FROM
journal, September 2002


A model of the earthquake cycle along the San Andreas Fault System for the past 1000 years
journal, January 2006


Paleoseismic Event Dating and the Conditional Probability of Large Earthquakes on the Southern San Andreas Fault, California
journal, October 2002


Earthquake cycle deformation in the Tibetan plateau with a weak mid-crustal layer: EARTHQUAKE CYCLE WITH A WEAK LAYER
journal, June 2013


Earthquake-cycle deformation and fault slip rates in northern Tibet
journal, January 2009


The Aksay segment of the northern Altyn Tagh fault: Tectonic geomorphology, landscape evolution, and Holocene slip rate: AKSAY SEGMENT OF THE NATF
journal, April 2005


Geodetic determination of relative plate motion in central California
journal, February 1973


Dating offset fans along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault using cosmogenic 26Al and 10Be
journal, January 2005


Global Positioning System constraints on fault slip rates in southern California and northern Baja, Mexico
journal, October 1996


Viscoelastic earthquake cycle models with deep stress-driven creep along the San Andreas fault system: STRESS-DRIVEN CREEP
journal, October 2004


Holocene slip rate of the Central Garlock Fault in southeastern Searles Valley, California
journal, August 1993


Evidence for 830 years of seismic quiescence from palaeoseismology, archaeoseismology and historical seismicity along the Dead Sea fault in Syria
journal, May 2003


Postglacial left slip rate and past occurrence of M ≥8 earthquakes on the Western Haiyuan Fault, Gansu, China
journal, August 1999


Millennial Recurrence of Large Earthquakes on the Haiyuan Fault near Songshan, Gansu Province, China
journal, February 2007


Late Quaternary offsets along the Fairweather fault and crustal plate interactions in southern Alaska
journal, May 1978


Lower crustal relaxation beneath the Tibetan Plateau and Qaidam Basin following the 2001 Kokoxili earthquake: Kokoxili lower crustal relaxation
journal, September 2011


Holocene activity of the San Andreas fault at Wallace Creek, California
journal, January 1984


Detection of creep along the Philippine Fault: First results of geodetic measurements on Leyte Island, central Philippine
journal, June 1994


Morphology, displacement, and slip rates along the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey: THE NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT
journal, October 2002


Early Holocene and Late Pleistocene slip rates of the southern Dead Sea Fault determined from 10 Be cosmogenic dating of offset alluvial deposits
journal, January 2010


Post-seismic motion following the 1997 Manyi (Tibet) earthquake: InSAR observations and modelling
journal, June 2007


San Jacinto Fault Zone in the Peninsular Ranges of Southern California
journal, January 1967


Late Quaternary slip rates and slip partitioning on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand
journal, February 2001


Recent behavior of the North Anatolian Fault: Insights from an integrated paleoseismological data set
journal, January 2010


Evidence of power-law flow in the Mojave desert mantle
journal, July 2004


Using short-term postseismic displacements to infer the ambient deformation conditions of the upper mantle: POSTSEISMIC INFERRED MANTLE CONDITIONS
journal, January 2012


Present tectonic motion across the Coast Ranges and San Andreas fault system in central California
journal, December 2001


Refined kinematics of the eastern California shear zone from GPS observations, 1993-1998
journal, February 2001


Transient rheology of the uppermost mantle beneath the Mojave Desert, California
journal, October 2003


Dynamic models of interseismic deformation and stress transfer from plate motion to continental transform faults: MODELS OF INTERSEISMIC DEFORMATION
journal, May 2012


Convergence across the northwest Himalaya from GPS measurements
journal, January 2002


Coupled afterslip and viscoelastic flow following the 2002 Denali Fault, Alaska earthquake
journal, March 2009


Late Quaternary rate of slip along the San Jacinto Fault Zone near Anza, southern California
journal, January 1990


Strain accumulation across the Carrizo segment of the San Andreas Fault, California: Impact of laterally varying crustal properties: ASYMMETRIC STRAIN, SAN ANDREAS FAULT
journal, May 2006


Temporal evolution of continental lithospheric strength in actively deforming regions
journal, January 2008


New constraints on the motion of the Fairweather fault, Alaska, from GPS observations
journal, January 2003


Paleoseismic evidence of clustered earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain, California
journal, January 1994


Late Holocene activity of the Dead Sea Transform revealed in 3D palaeoseismic trenches on the Jordan Gorge segment
journal, May 2005


Long-term slip rate of the southern San Andreas Fault from 10 Be- 26 Al surface exposure dating of an offset alluvial fan
journal, January 2006


The central Philippine Fault Zone: Location of great earthquakes, slow events and creep activity
journal, October 2005


Asthenosphere readjustment and the earthquake cycle
journal, July 1978


Variable rates of Late Quaternary strike slip on the San Jacinto Fault Zone, southern California
journal, January 1981


GPS measurements of current crustal movements along the Dead Sea Fault: GPS MEASUREMENTS ALONG THE DEAD SEA FAULT
journal, May 2004


Holocene slip rate of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara
journal, November 2004


Large-scale geometry, offset and kinematic evolution of the Karakorum fault, Tibet
journal, March 2004