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Title: Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Lastly, results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events,more » exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6]
  1. Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology (POSTECH) (Korea, Republic of). Division of Environmental Science and Engineering
  2. Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science
  3. National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
  4. Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway). Uni Research Climate
  5. German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)
  6. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria BC (Canada). Environment and Climate Change Canada
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF); Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)
OSTI Identifier:
1523641
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC2-5CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Lee, Donghyun, Min, Seung-Ki, Fischer, Erich, Shiogama, Hideo, Bethke, Ingo, Lierhammer, Ludwig, and Scinocca, John F. Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d.
Lee, Donghyun, Min, Seung-Ki, Fischer, Erich, Shiogama, Hideo, Bethke, Ingo, Lierhammer, Ludwig, & Scinocca, John F. Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics. United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d
Lee, Donghyun, Min, Seung-Ki, Fischer, Erich, Shiogama, Hideo, Bethke, Ingo, Lierhammer, Ludwig, and Scinocca, John F. 2018. "Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics". United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1523641.
@article{osti_1523641,
title = {Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics},
author = {Lee, Donghyun and Min, Seung-Ki and Fischer, Erich and Shiogama, Hideo and Bethke, Ingo and Lierhammer, Ludwig and Scinocca, John F.},
abstractNote = {This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Lastly, results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1523641}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
issn = {1748-9326},
number = 4,
volume = 13,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Apr 12 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Thu Apr 12 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}

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Cited by: 41 works
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Works referenced in this record:

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journal, May 2015


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journal, January 2017


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journal, January 2017


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Works referencing / citing this record:

Role of Arabian Sea warming on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a regional climate model
journal, October 2019


Global Monsoon Changes under the Paris Agreement Temperature Goals in CESM1(CAM5)
journal, January 2019


Multi-RCM near-term projections of summer climate extremes over East Asia
journal, September 2018


Future changes in Indian summer monsoon characteristics under 1.5 and 2 °C specific warming levels
journal, October 2019


Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world
journal, March 2019


Scalability of future climate changes across Japan examined with large-ensemble simulations at + 1.5 K, +2 K, and + 4 K global warming levels
journal, June 2020


Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world
text, January 2019


Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world
text, January 2019