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Title: Supply and Demand Constraints on Future PV Power in the USA

Abstract

An economic analysis with a defined uncertainty range is presented that considers whether the future deployment of utility-scale PV (UPV) systems in the USA will be limited by the supply of PV modules or by market demand for these systems. An analysis of global PV module manufacturing growth and the fraction of modules produced that will be available for installation in the USA gives a plausible range of cumulative capacity for the UPV segment of 50 - 170 GW in 2030 and 60 - 500 GW in 2040. A parallel analysis of the future demand for UPV systems in the USA indicates a plausible range for cumulative capacity of 80 - 230 GW in 2030 and 150 - 530 GW in 2040. The plausible ranges for supply and demand substantially overlap in both 2030 and 2040, suggesting that neither supply nor demand is more likely to limit PV deployment in the USA. Consequently, mechanisms for enabling growth in both supply and demand can benefit efforts intended to increase the deployment of PV in the USA.

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. U.S. Department of Energy
  2. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
OSTI Identifier:
1514833
Report Number(s):
NREL/CP-6A20-73943
DOE Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Presented at the 2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC), 25-30 June 2017, Washington, D.C.
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
14 SOLAR ENERGY; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; photovoltaics; strategy; USA; utility-scale

Citation Formats

Basore, Paul A., and Cole, Wesley J. Supply and Demand Constraints on Future PV Power in the USA. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1109/PVSC.2017.8366035.
Basore, Paul A., & Cole, Wesley J. Supply and Demand Constraints on Future PV Power in the USA. United States. https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2017.8366035
Basore, Paul A., and Cole, Wesley J. 2018. "Supply and Demand Constraints on Future PV Power in the USA". United States. https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2017.8366035.
@article{osti_1514833,
title = {Supply and Demand Constraints on Future PV Power in the USA},
author = {Basore, Paul A. and Cole, Wesley J},
abstractNote = {An economic analysis with a defined uncertainty range is presented that considers whether the future deployment of utility-scale PV (UPV) systems in the USA will be limited by the supply of PV modules or by market demand for these systems. An analysis of global PV module manufacturing growth and the fraction of modules produced that will be available for installation in the USA gives a plausible range of cumulative capacity for the UPV segment of 50 - 170 GW in 2030 and 60 - 500 GW in 2040. A parallel analysis of the future demand for UPV systems in the USA indicates a plausible range for cumulative capacity of 80 - 230 GW in 2030 and 150 - 530 GW in 2040. The plausible ranges for supply and demand substantially overlap in both 2030 and 2040, suggesting that neither supply nor demand is more likely to limit PV deployment in the USA. Consequently, mechanisms for enabling growth in both supply and demand can benefit efforts intended to increase the deployment of PV in the USA.},
doi = {10.1109/PVSC.2017.8366035},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1514833}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {11}
}

Conference:
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