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Title: Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques

Abstract

Abstract. Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data–model integration. Efficient data–model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables is computationally intensive because it involves a large number of expensive ESM simulations. In this effort, we propose an efficient surrogate method capable of using a few ESM runs to build an accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system of model outputs over large spatial and temporal domains. We first use singular value decomposition to reduce the output dimensions and then use Bayesian optimization techniques to generate an accurate neural network surrogate model based on limited ESM simulation samples. Our machine-learning-based surrogate methods can build and evaluate a large surrogate system of many variables quickly. Thus, whenever the quantities of interest change, such as a different objective function, a new site, and a longer simulation time, we can simply extract the information of interest from the surrogate system without rebuilding new surrogates, which significantly reduces computational efforts. We apply the proposed method to a regional ecosystem model to approximate the relationship between eight model parameters and 42 660 carbon fluxmore » outputs. Results indicate that using only 20 model simulations, we can build an accurate surrogate system of the 42 660 variables, wherein the consistency between the surrogate prediction and actual model simulation is 0.93 and the mean squared error is 0.02. This highly accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system will greatly enhance the computational efficiency of data–model integration to improve predictions and advance our understanding of the Earth system.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1513382
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Lu, Dan, and Ricciuto, Daniel M. Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1791-2019.
Lu, Dan, & Ricciuto, Daniel M. Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques. United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1791-2019.
Lu, Dan, and Ricciuto, Daniel M. Mon . "Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques". United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1791-2019. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1513382.
@article{osti_1513382,
title = {Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques},
author = {Lu, Dan and Ricciuto, Daniel M.},
abstractNote = {Abstract. Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data–model integration. Efficient data–model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables is computationally intensive because it involves a large number of expensive ESM simulations. In this effort, we propose an efficient surrogate method capable of using a few ESM runs to build an accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system of model outputs over large spatial and temporal domains. We first use singular value decomposition to reduce the output dimensions and then use Bayesian optimization techniques to generate an accurate neural network surrogate model based on limited ESM simulation samples. Our machine-learning-based surrogate methods can build and evaluate a large surrogate system of many variables quickly. Thus, whenever the quantities of interest change, such as a different objective function, a new site, and a longer simulation time, we can simply extract the information of interest from the surrogate system without rebuilding new surrogates, which significantly reduces computational efforts. We apply the proposed method to a regional ecosystem model to approximate the relationship between eight model parameters and 42 660 carbon flux outputs. Results indicate that using only 20 model simulations, we can build an accurate surrogate system of the 42 660 variables, wherein the consistency between the surrogate prediction and actual model simulation is 0.93 and the mean squared error is 0.02. This highly accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system will greatly enhance the computational efficiency of data–model integration to improve predictions and advance our understanding of the Earth system.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-1791-2019},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
issn = {1991-9603},
number = 5,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {5}
}

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