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Title: Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise

Abstract

Observational evidence points to a warming global climate accompanied by rising sea levels which impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities. Studies suggest that internal climate processes can modulate projected future sea level rise (SLR) regionally. It is not clear whether this modulation depends on the future climate pathways. Here, by analyzing two sets of ensemble simulations from a climate model, we investigate the potential reduction of SLR, as a result of steric and dynamic oceanographic affects alone, achieved by following a lower emission scenario instead of business-as-usual one over the twenty-first century and how it may be modulated regionally by internal climate variability. Results show almost no statistically significant difference in steric and dynamic SLR on both global and regional scales in the near-term between the two scenarios, but statistically significant SLR reduction for the global mean and many regions later in the century (2061–2080). However, there are regions where the reduction is insignificant, such as the Philippines and west of Australia, that are associated with ocean dynamics and intensified internal variability due to external forcing.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1511711
Grant/Contract Number:  
FC02-97ER62402
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Communications
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Hu, Aixue, and Bates, Susan C. Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03474-8.
Hu, Aixue, & Bates, Susan C. Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise. United States. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03474-8.
Hu, Aixue, and Bates, Susan C. Wed . "Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise". United States. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03474-8. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1511711.
@article{osti_1511711,
title = {Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise},
author = {Hu, Aixue and Bates, Susan C.},
abstractNote = {Observational evidence points to a warming global climate accompanied by rising sea levels which impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities. Studies suggest that internal climate processes can modulate projected future sea level rise (SLR) regionally. It is not clear whether this modulation depends on the future climate pathways. Here, by analyzing two sets of ensemble simulations from a climate model, we investigate the potential reduction of SLR, as a result of steric and dynamic oceanographic affects alone, achieved by following a lower emission scenario instead of business-as-usual one over the twenty-first century and how it may be modulated regionally by internal climate variability. Results show almost no statistically significant difference in steric and dynamic SLR on both global and regional scales in the near-term between the two scenarios, but statistically significant SLR reduction for the global mean and many regions later in the century (2061–2080). However, there are regions where the reduction is insignificant, such as the Philippines and west of Australia, that are associated with ocean dynamics and intensified internal variability due to external forcing.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-03474-8},
journal = {Nature Communications},
issn = {2041-1723},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {3}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
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