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Title: Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming

Abstract

Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °Cina special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten extreme climate indices, from deinitions created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to determine if the three different scenarios cause different intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation or temperature over the 21 st century. After computing the indices, statistical tests were used to determine if significant changes affect their characteristics. It was found that at the grid point level significant changes emerge in all scenarios, for nearly all indices. The temperature indices show widespread significant change, while the behavior of precipitation indices reflects the larger role that internal variability plays, even by the end of the century. Nonetheless differences can be assessed, in substantial measure for many of these indices: changes in nearly all indices have a strong correlation to global mean temperature, so that scenarios and times with greatermore » temperature change experience greater index changes for many regions. This is particularly true of the temperature-related indices, but can be assessed for some regions also for the indices related to precipitation intensity. These results thus show that even for scenarios that are separated by only half of a degree in global average temperature, the statistics of extremes are significantly different.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [2];  [2]
  1. Colorado College Dept. of Physics, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesa Lab, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. Corp. for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1509899
Grant/Contract Number:  
FC02-97ER62402
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate; climate change; Paris agreement; climate extremes; ETCCDI

Citation Formats

Aerenson, Travis, Tebaldi, Claudia, Sanderson, Ben, and Lamarque, Jean -François. Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaafd6.
Aerenson, Travis, Tebaldi, Claudia, Sanderson, Ben, & Lamarque, Jean -François. Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaafd6.
Aerenson, Travis, Tebaldi, Claudia, Sanderson, Ben, and Lamarque, Jean -François. Tue . "Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaafd6. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1509899.
@article{osti_1509899,
title = {Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming},
author = {Aerenson, Travis and Tebaldi, Claudia and Sanderson, Ben and Lamarque, Jean -François},
abstractNote = {Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °Cina special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten extreme climate indices, from deinitions created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to determine if the three different scenarios cause different intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation or temperature over the 21st century. After computing the indices, statistical tests were used to determine if significant changes affect their characteristics. It was found that at the grid point level significant changes emerge in all scenarios, for nearly all indices. The temperature indices show widespread significant change, while the behavior of precipitation indices reflects the larger role that internal variability plays, even by the end of the century. Nonetheless differences can be assessed, in substantial measure for many of these indices: changes in nearly all indices have a strong correlation to global mean temperature, so that scenarios and times with greater temperature change experience greater index changes for many regions. This is particularly true of the temperature-related indices, but can be assessed for some regions also for the indices related to precipitation intensity. These results thus show that even for scenarios that are separated by only half of a degree in global average temperature, the statistics of extremes are significantly different.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaafd6},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
issn = {1748-9326},
number = 3,
volume = 13,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {3}
}

Journal Article:
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