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Title: Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation

Abstract

Changes in precipitation amount, intensity and frequency in response to global warming are examined using global high-resolution (16-km) climate model simulations based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) conducted under Project Athena. Our study shows the increases of zonal mean total precipitation in all latitudes except the northern subtropics (15°N-30°N) and southern subtropics-to-mid latitudes (30°S-40°S). The PDF changes in different latitudes suggest a higher occurrence of light precipitation (LP; = 1 mm day-1) and heavy precipitation (HP; = 30 mm day-1) at the expense of moderate precipitation reduction (MP; 1-30 mm day-1) from tropics to mid-latitudes, but an increase in all categories of precipitation in polar regions. On the other hand, the PDF change with global warming in different precipitation climatological zones presents another image. For all regions and seasons examined, there is a HP increase at the cost of MP, but LP varies. The reduced MP in richer precipitation zones resides in the PDF peak intensities, which linearly increase with the precipitation climatology zones. In particular in the tropics (20ºS~20ºN), the precipitation PDF has a flatter distribution (i.e., HP and LP increases with MP reduction) except the Sahara Desert. In the primarymore » precipitation zones in the subtropics (20º~40º) of both hemispheres, precipitation over land switches toward higher intensity (HP increases, but MP and LP decrease) in both winter and summer, while precipitation over ocean in both seasons shows a flattening trend in the intensity distribution. For the major precipitation zones of the mid-to-high latitude belt (40º~70º), PDF of precipitation tends to be flatter over ocean in summer, but switches toward higher intensities over land in both summer and winter, as well as over ocean in winter.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [5]
  1. Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan South Korea; Pusan National University, Busan South Korea
  2. Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi Texas
  3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington
  4. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax Virginia
  5. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi Texas
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1506988
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-140378
Journal ID: ISSN 0035-9009
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 145; Journal Issue: 718; Journal ID: ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher:
Royal Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
atmosphere, atmospheric dynamics, global warming, extreme precipitation

Citation Formats

Feng, Xuelei, Liu, Chuntao, Xie, Feiqin, Lu, Jian, Chiu, Long S., Tintera, George, and Chen, Baohua. Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1002/qj.3432.
Feng, Xuelei, Liu, Chuntao, Xie, Feiqin, Lu, Jian, Chiu, Long S., Tintera, George, & Chen, Baohua. Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation. United States. doi:10.1002/qj.3432.
Feng, Xuelei, Liu, Chuntao, Xie, Feiqin, Lu, Jian, Chiu, Long S., Tintera, George, and Chen, Baohua. Tue . "Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation". United States. doi:10.1002/qj.3432.
@article{osti_1506988,
title = {Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation},
author = {Feng, Xuelei and Liu, Chuntao and Xie, Feiqin and Lu, Jian and Chiu, Long S. and Tintera, George and Chen, Baohua},
abstractNote = {Changes in precipitation amount, intensity and frequency in response to global warming are examined using global high-resolution (16-km) climate model simulations based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) conducted under Project Athena. Our study shows the increases of zonal mean total precipitation in all latitudes except the northern subtropics (15°N-30°N) and southern subtropics-to-mid latitudes (30°S-40°S). The PDF changes in different latitudes suggest a higher occurrence of light precipitation (LP; = 1 mm day-1) and heavy precipitation (HP; = 30 mm day-1) at the expense of moderate precipitation reduction (MP; 1-30 mm day-1) from tropics to mid-latitudes, but an increase in all categories of precipitation in polar regions. On the other hand, the PDF change with global warming in different precipitation climatological zones presents another image. For all regions and seasons examined, there is a HP increase at the cost of MP, but LP varies. The reduced MP in richer precipitation zones resides in the PDF peak intensities, which linearly increase with the precipitation climatology zones. In particular in the tropics (20ºS~20ºN), the precipitation PDF has a flatter distribution (i.e., HP and LP increases with MP reduction) except the Sahara Desert. In the primary precipitation zones in the subtropics (20º~40º) of both hemispheres, precipitation over land switches toward higher intensity (HP increases, but MP and LP decrease) in both winter and summer, while precipitation over ocean in both seasons shows a flattening trend in the intensity distribution. For the major precipitation zones of the mid-to-high latitude belt (40º~70º), PDF of precipitation tends to be flatter over ocean in summer, but switches toward higher intensities over land in both summer and winter, as well as over ocean in winter.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3432},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
issn = {0035-9009},
number = 718,
volume = 145,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {1}
}