skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Lessons from a large-scale systems dynamics modeling project: the example of the biomass scenario model

Journal Article · · System Dynamics Review
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1620· OSTI ID:1506945
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [2]
  1. Peterson Group (United States)
  2. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  3. Lexidyne LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations

The biomass scenario model (BSM) is a dynamic model of the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain in the U.S.A., developed during a multi-year analysis effort conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), under sponsorship from the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO). The BSM project, which received the 2018 Applications Award by the International System Dynamics Society, has supported collaborative analyses, developed scenarios for industry development and facilitated stakeholder engagement. We summarize insights gained from the BSM project that may be useful to other large-scale dynamic modeling efforts. We summarize the project focus, the analysis process, key outcomes and observations on successful execution of such a product. Key points include the value of a multidisciplinary team with clear roles, engagement of experts and stakeholders, and use and reuse of simple, modular structures. As a result, the overall effort suggests that these practices may aid long-term, team-focused, multi-stakeholder modeling efforts.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308; AC36‐08GO28308
OSTI ID:
1506945
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1503916
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-72627
Journal Information:
System Dynamics Review, Vol. 35, Issue 1; ISSN 0883-7066
Publisher:
WileyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (8)

Supply chain modularity in system dynamics: A. Elmasry and A. Größler: Supply Chain Modularity in System Dynamics journal June 2018
Insiders’ Views of the Valley of Death: Behavioral and Institutional Perspectives journal December 2013
The rediscovery of industrial dynamics: the contribution of system dynamics to supply chain management in a dynamic and fragmented world journal October 2005
Ethanol Distribution, Dispensing, and Use: Analysis of a Portion of the Biomass-to-Biofuels Supply Chain Using System Dynamics journal May 2012
Sustainable and renewable energy supply chain: A system dynamics overview journal February 2018
Application of a variance‐based sensitivity analysis method to the Biomass Scenario Learning Model journal July 2017
Growing a sustainable biofuels industry: economics, environmental considerations, and the role of the Conservation Reserve Program journal May 2013
Design Rules: The Power of Modularity book January 2000

Similar Records

WBS 4.2.1.31 Integrated Life Cycle Sustainability Analysis
Conference · Mon Mar 11 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · OSTI ID:1506945
Exploring Bioeconomy Growth through the Public Release of the Biomass Scenario Model
Conference · Wed Aug 02 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · OSTI ID:1506945
+3 more
BETO 2021 Peer Review - WBS 4.1.2.32: Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis
Conference · Fri Aug 27 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · OSTI ID:1506945

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
system dynamics
simulation
biomass scenario model