Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization

Plotkin, David A.; Webber, Robert J.; O'Neill, Morgan E.; Weare, Jonathan; Abbot, Dorian S.

doi:10.1029/2018MS001419

Title: Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization

Journal Article · Mon Apr 01 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001419· OSTI ID:1504807

^[1]; Webber, Robert J. ^[2];

^[3]; Weare, Jonathan ^[2];

^[1]

Department of the Geophysical SciencesThe University of Chicago Chicago IL USA
Courant Institute of Mathematical SciencesNew York University New York NY USA
Department of Earth System ScienceStanford University Stanford CA USA

Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small-scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high resolution. Further, models often fail to capture the process of rapid intensification, which is a distinguishing feature of many intense TCs. Understanding rapid intensification is especially important in the context of global warming, which may increase the frequency of intense TCs. To better leverage computational resources for the study of rapid intensification, we introduce an action minimization algorithm applied to the Weather Research and Forecasting and WRFPLUS models. Action minimization nudges the model into forming more intense TCs than it otherwise would; it does so via the maximum likelihood path in a stochastic formulation of the model, thereby allowing targeted study of intensification mechanisms. We apply action minimization to simulations of Hurricanes Danny (2015) and Fred (2009) at 6-km resolution to demonstrate that the algorithm consistently intensifies TCs via physically plausible pathways. We show an approximately tenfold computational savings using action minimization to study the tail of the TC intensification distribution. Further, for Hurricanes Danny and Fred, action minimization produces perturbations that preferentially reduce low-level shear as compared to upper-level shear, at least above a threshold of approximately 4 m/s. We also demonstrate that asymmetric, time-dependent patterns of heating can cause significant TC intensification beyond symmetric, azimuthally averaged heating and find a regime of nonlinear response to asymmetric heating that has not been extensively studied in previous work.

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Research Organization:: Krell Institute, Ames, IA (United States); Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: FG02-97ER25308; SC0014205

OSTI ID:: 1504807

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1504811; OSTI ID: 1610361

Journal Information:: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Name: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Vol. 11 Journal Issue: 4; ISSN 1942-2466

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 11 works

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37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY
tropical cyclone
action minimization
rapid intensification
WRF

Title: Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization

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