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Title: Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies

Journal Article · · Radiation and Environmental Biophysics
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It was recently suggested that earlier reports on solid-cancer mortality and incidence in the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors contain still-useful information about low-dose risk that should not be ignored, because longer follow-up may lead to attenuated estimates of low-dose risk due to longer time since exposure. Here it is demonstrated, through the use of all follow-up data and risk models stratified on period of follow-up (as opposed to sub-setting the data by follow-up period), that the appearance of risk attenuation over time may be the result of less-precise risk estimation—in particular, imprecise estimation of effect-modification parameters—in the earlier periods. Longer follow-up, in addition to allowing more-precise estimation of risk due to larger numbers of radiation-related cases, provides more-precise adjustment for background mortality or incidence and more-accurate assessment of risk modification by age at exposure and attained age. It is concluded that the latest follow-up data are most appropriate for inferring low-dose risk. However, if researchers are interested in effects of time since exposure, the most-recent follow-up data should be considered rather than the results of earlier reports.

Research Organization:
National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
DOE award DE-HS0000031; HS0000031
OSTI ID:
1409701
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1502096
Journal Information:
Radiation and Environmental Biophysics, Journal Name: Radiation and Environmental Biophysics Vol. 57 Journal Issue: 1; ISSN 0301-634X
Publisher:
Springer Science + Business MediaCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
Germany
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 6 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (6)

Effect of Comparison Group on Inference about Effect Modification by Demographic Factors in Cohort Risk Regression journal January 2002
A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose-Response Estimation: Semiparametric Radiation Dose-Response Estimation journal November 2015
Solid Cancer Incidence among the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors: 1958–2009 journal May 2017
The influence of follow-up on DS02 low-dose ranges with a significant excess relative risk of all solid cancer in the Japanese A-bomb survivors journal September 2016
Studies of the Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors, Report 14, 1950–2003: An Overview of Cancer and Noncancer Diseases journal March 2012
Impact of Comparison Group on Cohort dose Response Regression: an Example Using risk Estimation in Atomic-Bomb Survivors journal January 2001

Figures / Tables (3)

Fig. 1(p. 3)figure Fig. 1
Fig. 2(p. 4)figure Fig. 2
Table 1(p. 4)table Table 1

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Related Subjects

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.
61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY
Atomic-bomb survivors
Life Span Study
Low-dose research
Risk assessment