Final Report for LDRD Project ''A New Era of Research in Aerosol/Cloud/Climate Interactions at LLNL''
Observations of global temperature records seem to show less warming than predictions of global warming brought on by increasing concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases. One of the reasonable explanations for this apparent inconsistency is that the increasing concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols may be partially counteracting the effects of greenhouse gases. Aerosols can scatter or absorb the solar radiation, directly change the planetary albedo. Aerosols, unlike CO{sub 2}, may also have a significant indirect effect by serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Increases in CCN can result in clouds with more but smaller droplets, enhancing the reflection of solar radiation. Aerosol direct and indirect effects are a strong function of the distributions of all aerosol types and the size distribution of the aerosol in question. However, the large spatial and temporal variabilities in the concentration, chemical characteristics, and size distribution of aerosols have made it difficult to assess the magnitude of aerosol effects on atmospheric radiation. These variabilities in aerosol characteristics as well as their effects on clouds are the leading sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate variation. Inventory studies have shown that the present-day anthropogenic emissions contribute more than half of fine particle mass primarily due to sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols derived from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. Parts of our earlier studies have been focused on developing an understanding of global sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol abundances and investigating their climate effects [Chuang et al., 1997; Penner et al., 1998]. We have also modeled aerosol optical properties to account for changes in the refractive indices with relative humidity and dry aerosol composition [Grant et al., 1999]. Moreover, we have developed parameterizations of cloud response to aerosol abundance for use in global models to evaluate the importance of aerosol/cloud interactions on climate forcing [Chuang and Penner, 1995]. Our research has been recognized as one of a few studies attempting to quantify the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on climate in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [IPCC, 2001]. Our previous assessments of aerosol climate effects were based on a general circulation model (NCAR CCM1) fully coupled to a global tropospheric chemistry model (GRANTOUR). Both models, however, were developed more than a decade ago. The lack of advanced physics representation and techniques in our current models limits us from further exploring the interrelationship between aerosol, cloud, and climate variation. Our objective is to move to a new era of aerosol/cloud/climate modeling at LLNL by coupling the most advanced chemistry and climate models and by incorporating an aerosol microphysics module. This modeling capability will enable us to identify and analyze the responsible processes in aerosol/cloud/climate interactions and therefore, to improve the level of scientific understanding for aerosol climate effects. This state-of-the-art coupled models will also be used to address the relative importance of anthropogenic and natural emissions in the spatial pattern of aerosol climate forcing in order to assess the potential of human induced climate change.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 15002147
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-ID-146980; TRN: US200408%%142
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 31 Jan 2002
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
POLICY AND ECONOMY
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
AEROSOLS
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATES
CLOUDS
CONDENSATION NUCLEI
FOSSIL FUELS
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
GREENHOUSE GASES
LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY
OPTICAL PROPERTIES
SOLAR RADIATION