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Title: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

Abstract

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [2];  [1]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]
  1. CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo (Norway)
  2. Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom)
  3. NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
  4. Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
  5. Climate Analytics, Berlin (Germany)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES) (SC-22)
OSTI Identifier:
1499122
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0012549
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; aerosols; black carbon; organic carbon; sulfate; climate change; extreme weather

Citation Formats

Samset, B. H., Sand, M., Smith, C. J., Bauer, S. E., Forster, P. M., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Osprey, S., and Schleussner, C. -F. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1002/2017gl076079.
Samset, B. H., Sand, M., Smith, C. J., Bauer, S. E., Forster, P. M., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Osprey, S., & Schleussner, C. -F. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions. United States. doi:10.1002/2017gl076079.
Samset, B. H., Sand, M., Smith, C. J., Bauer, S. E., Forster, P. M., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Osprey, S., and Schleussner, C. -F. Mon . "Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions". United States. doi:10.1002/2017gl076079. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1499122.
@article{osti_1499122,
title = {Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions},
author = {Samset, B. H. and Sand, M. and Smith, C. J. and Bauer, S. E. and Forster, P. M. and Fuglestvedt, J. S. and Osprey, S. and Schleussner, C. -F.},
abstractNote = {Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.},
doi = {10.1002/2017gl076079},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
issn = {0094-8276},
number = 2,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {1}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 23 works
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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: Model responses to a removal of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. (left to right) Changes to surface temperature, precipitation, TXx, RX5D, and CDD. The solid bars show land area means; the hatched bars show global means. The yellow circles show changes over land, weighted by population density. The black barsmore » show the multimodel mean responses.« less

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      Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.