Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C. -F.

doi:10.1002/2017gl076079

Title: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

Journal Article · Mon Jan 08 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076079· OSTI ID:1499122

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CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo (Norway)
Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom)
NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
Climate Analytics, Berlin (Germany)

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

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Research Organization:: Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012549

OSTI ID:: 1499122

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 2; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 96 works

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