Separability of Mesh Bias and Parametric Uncertainty for a Full System Thermal Analysis

Schroeder, Benjamin B.; Silva, Humberto; Smith, Kyle D.

doi:10.1115/1.4042815

Title: Separability of Mesh Bias and Parametric Uncertainty for a Full System Thermal Analysis

Journal Article · Fri Feb 22 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4042815· OSTI ID:1496995

Schroeder, Benjamin B. ^[1]; Silva, Humberto ^[1]; Smith, Kyle D. ^[1]

Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

When making computational simulation predictions of multiphysics engineering systems, sources of uncertainty in the prediction need to be acknowledged and included in the analysis within the current paradigm of striving for simulation credibility. A thermal analysis of an aerospace geometry was performed at Sandia National Laboratories. Here, for this analysis, a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) workflow provided structure for the analysis, resulting in the quantification of significant uncertainty sources including spatial numerical error and material property parametric uncertainty. It was hypothesized that the parametric uncertainty and numerical errors were independent and separable for this application. This hypothesis was supported by performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) simulations at multiple mesh resolutions, while being limited by resources to minimize the number of medium and high resolution simulations. In conclusion, based on this supported hypothesis, a prediction including parametric uncertainty and a systematic mesh bias is used to make a margin assessment that avoids unnecessary uncertainty obscuring the results and optimizes use of computing resources.

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Research Organization:: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC04-94AL85000; NA0003525

OSTI ID:: 1496995

Report Number(s):: SAND-2019-1201J; 672142

Journal Information:: Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Vol. 3, Issue 3; ISSN 2377-2158

Publisher:: ASMECopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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