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Title: Residual value analysis of plug-in vehicles in the United States

Abstract

Knowledge about the value of used plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), known as residual value, is critical for potential PEV purchasers, corporations, and governments who wish to consider the lifetime cost effectiveness of PEVs. In this study, we investigate the residual values of PEVs and compare them with those of other vehicle powertrain technologies using the “true market value” data from Edmunds.com, and considering U.S. federal incentives. We define the adjusted retention rate as the ratio between resale value and the manufacturer’s suggested retail price, subtracting incentives. We develop statistical models to quantify the effects of powertrain technologies on residual value while controlling key factors, including vehicle size, brand, and market segments. We find that the long-range high-performance Tesla Model S holds value significantly better than any other vehicle type evaluated, including internal combustion engine vehicles. Hybrid electric vehicles and plugin hybrid electric vehicles are comparable to one another. They hold slightly less value than internal combustion engine vehicles, but significantly more than short-range (<125 miles) battery electric vehicles. However, short-range battery electric vehicles have a faster improvement in 3-year adjusted retention rate than any other powertrain technology from model year 2013–2014. Finally, the other factor that significantly influences adjusted retentionmore » rate is the home country of the vehicle manufacturer (e.g., United States, Japan, or Germany).« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. Univ. of Central Florida, Orlando, FL (United States)
  2. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Vehicle Technologies Office (EE-3V)
OSTI Identifier:
1494668
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Energy Policy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 125; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; 32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; Adjusted Retention Rate; Plug-in Electric Vehicle; Residual Value; Used PEV

Citation Formats

Guo, Zhaomiao, and Zhou, Yan. Residual value analysis of plug-in vehicles in the United States. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.023.
Guo, Zhaomiao, & Zhou, Yan. Residual value analysis of plug-in vehicles in the United States. United States. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.023.
Guo, Zhaomiao, and Zhou, Yan. Tue . "Residual value analysis of plug-in vehicles in the United States". United States. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.023.
@article{osti_1494668,
title = {Residual value analysis of plug-in vehicles in the United States},
author = {Guo, Zhaomiao and Zhou, Yan},
abstractNote = {Knowledge about the value of used plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), known as residual value, is critical for potential PEV purchasers, corporations, and governments who wish to consider the lifetime cost effectiveness of PEVs. In this study, we investigate the residual values of PEVs and compare them with those of other vehicle powertrain technologies using the “true market value” data from Edmunds.com, and considering U.S. federal incentives. We define the adjusted retention rate as the ratio between resale value and the manufacturer’s suggested retail price, subtracting incentives. We develop statistical models to quantify the effects of powertrain technologies on residual value while controlling key factors, including vehicle size, brand, and market segments. We find that the long-range high-performance Tesla Model S holds value significantly better than any other vehicle type evaluated, including internal combustion engine vehicles. Hybrid electric vehicles and plugin hybrid electric vehicles are comparable to one another. They hold slightly less value than internal combustion engine vehicles, but significantly more than short-range (<125 miles) battery electric vehicles. However, short-range battery electric vehicles have a faster improvement in 3-year adjusted retention rate than any other powertrain technology from model year 2013–2014. Finally, the other factor that significantly influences adjusted retention rate is the home country of the vehicle manufacturer (e.g., United States, Japan, or Germany).},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.023},
journal = {Energy Policy},
issn = {0301-4215},
number = C,
volume = 125,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {11}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
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