Could a bioenergy program stimulate electric vehicle market penetration? Potential impacts of biogas to electricity annual rebate program

Journal Article · Tue Dec 25 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Global Change Biology. Bioenergy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12581· OSTI ID:1488869

Xie, Fei  ^[1]; Lin, Zhenhong ^[1]; Podkaminer, Kara ^[2]

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1. National Transportation Research Center Oak Ridge National Laboratory Knoxville Tennessee
2. Office of Strategic Programs, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy Washington District of Columbia

Abstract The biogas‐to‐electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) allows for Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be generated when electricity produced from biogas is used in the transportation sector. Though approved as a general pathway, EPA has proposed multiple credit allocation methods to functionalize this pathway. This study describes and evaluates a potential credit allocation framework where vehicle manufacturers generate electricity RIN (E‐RIN) credits and use these credits to increase the sales of plug‐in electric vehicles (PEVs). Under this framework, manufacturers use part of the credit value to reimburse electricity generators, offsetting potential higher biogas electricity generation cost. The remaining credit value is passed on to consumers as an annual PEV rebate to stimulate PEV sales. An iterative simulation framework is developed to fulfill two tasks: (a) to estimate the annual rebate amounts and their upfront value to consumers based on various factors, such as vehicle mileage, E‐RIN equivalence value, and biogas capacity, and (b) to evaluate potential impacts of the E‐RIN program on electrification of the future light‐duty vehicles (LDVs) and energy use. The annual rebate amount varies by vehicle technology and could be up to $870/year for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and range between $230 and 825/year for plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) depending on the electric range. These per vehicle rebates decrease when demand for electricity exceeds biogas electricity availability. The effectiveness of the program as modeled here is subject to different factors, such as the E‐RIN equivalence value, biogas electricity generation cost, biogas electricity generation capacity, and consumers’ valuation of the E‐RIN rebate. Our modeling results indicate that an E‐RIN program has the potential to produce nearly $12 billion in E‐RIN credits annually and to significantly increase PEV annual sales by up to 2.3 million and the PEV population by about 19.7 million in 2030.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1488869
• Alternate ID(s): OSTI ID: 1488870; OSTI ID: 1494006
• Journal Information: Global Change Biology. Bioenergy, Journal Name: Global Change Biology. Bioenergy Vol. 11 Journal Issue: 4; ISSN 1757-1693
• Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
• Country of Publication: United Kingdom
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
bioelectricity
biogas
consumer choice
electric vehicle
renewable fuel standards
renewable identification number