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Title: Examining Efficacy of Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Analysis.

Abstract

This paper highlights how, in the backdrop of prevalent tensions between India and Pakistan, deterrence stability is endangered even when overall strategic stability prevails. Unresolved legacy issues including an outstanding boundary dispute, conflict over Kashmir, and terrorism mar India-Pakistan relations. Variables undermining the prospects for long term peace, among others, include growing mutual mistrust, the proxy war that India believes is state perpetrated, increasing conventional asymmetry, rapid advancement in weapon technologies, growing size of nuclear arsenals, doctrinal mismatch and above all, bilateral gridlock in confidence building measures and arms control measures. Disclaimer During the design of the politico-military exercises discussed in this paper, a number of assumptions about goals, strategies, and actions of the various countries under consideration are made. While these assumptions are based on the writings and thoughts of a variety of analysts familiar with South Asia, they do not represent the opinion or positions of Sandia National Laboratories, the Department of Energy, or the Government of the United States nor any other government. Instead, they are hypothetical and only intended to explore some of the issues important to strategic stability in South Asia. [Include any markings/notations, such as the date or"Draft"] Examining Efficacy of Strategic Stability inmore » South Asia SAND2015-XXXX Acknowledgements I am grateful to Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Bob Swartz for providing me this wonderful opportunity to work on a project "Examining Efficacy of Strategic Stability in South Asia "that is at the heart of the nuclear stability debate exacerbated by current tensions between the two countries. Opportunity has allowed me to explore the various nuances of the prevailing dynamics underscoring tensions and outline my thoughts and perceptions. I am thankful to a host of people at SNL for making my stay comfortable and for letting me devote my entire energies to single-mindedly pursue my assignment. At the top of the list is Geoff Forden, my supervisor, guide, and above all host, for his incisive inputs, advice and hospitality. I am also grateful to his team and staff at Sandia for their support and assistance. I would also like to thank Geoff, for organizing extensive interaction at important think tanks and other centers at Washington DC and Monetary, California, including the Naval Post Graduate School. Insights on crisis gaming shared by Centre for Applied Strategic Learning, National Defense University and John Hopkins, Advance Physics Laboratories Warfare Analysis Laboratory have been critical in sharpening my understanding of crisis gaming as a tool for strategic analysis. I am indeed thankful for this great learning opportunity.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1491033
Report Number(s):
SAND2019-0177
671385
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Sahgal, Arun. Examining Efficacy of Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Analysis.. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.2172/1491033.
Sahgal, Arun. Examining Efficacy of Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Analysis.. United States. doi:10.2172/1491033.
Sahgal, Arun. Tue . "Examining Efficacy of Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Analysis.". United States. doi:10.2172/1491033. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1491033.
@article{osti_1491033,
title = {Examining Efficacy of Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Analysis.},
author = {Sahgal, Arun},
abstractNote = {This paper highlights how, in the backdrop of prevalent tensions between India and Pakistan, deterrence stability is endangered even when overall strategic stability prevails. Unresolved legacy issues including an outstanding boundary dispute, conflict over Kashmir, and terrorism mar India-Pakistan relations. Variables undermining the prospects for long term peace, among others, include growing mutual mistrust, the proxy war that India believes is state perpetrated, increasing conventional asymmetry, rapid advancement in weapon technologies, growing size of nuclear arsenals, doctrinal mismatch and above all, bilateral gridlock in confidence building measures and arms control measures. Disclaimer During the design of the politico-military exercises discussed in this paper, a number of assumptions about goals, strategies, and actions of the various countries under consideration are made. While these assumptions are based on the writings and thoughts of a variety of analysts familiar with South Asia, they do not represent the opinion or positions of Sandia National Laboratories, the Department of Energy, or the Government of the United States nor any other government. Instead, they are hypothetical and only intended to explore some of the issues important to strategic stability in South Asia. [Include any markings/notations, such as the date or"Draft"] Examining Efficacy of Strategic Stability in South Asia SAND2015-XXXX Acknowledgements I am grateful to Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Bob Swartz for providing me this wonderful opportunity to work on a project "Examining Efficacy of Strategic Stability in South Asia "that is at the heart of the nuclear stability debate exacerbated by current tensions between the two countries. Opportunity has allowed me to explore the various nuances of the prevailing dynamics underscoring tensions and outline my thoughts and perceptions. I am thankful to a host of people at SNL for making my stay comfortable and for letting me devote my entire energies to single-mindedly pursue my assignment. At the top of the list is Geoff Forden, my supervisor, guide, and above all host, for his incisive inputs, advice and hospitality. I am also grateful to his team and staff at Sandia for their support and assistance. I would also like to thank Geoff, for organizing extensive interaction at important think tanks and other centers at Washington DC and Monetary, California, including the Naval Post Graduate School. Insights on crisis gaming shared by Centre for Applied Strategic Learning, National Defense University and John Hopkins, Advance Physics Laboratories Warfare Analysis Laboratory have been critical in sharpening my understanding of crisis gaming as a tool for strategic analysis. I am indeed thankful for this great learning opportunity.},
doi = {10.2172/1491033},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {1}
}