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Title: Could a bioenergy program stimulate electric vehicle market penetration? Potential impacts of biogas to electricity annual rebate program

Abstract

The biogas–to–electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) allows for Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be generated when electricity produced from biogas is used in the transportation sector. Though approved as a general pathway, EPA has proposed multiple credit allocation methods to functionalize this pathway. This study describes and evaluates a potential credit allocation framework where vehicle manufacturers generate electricity RIN (E–RIN) credits and use these credits to increase the sales of plug–in electric vehicles (PEVs). Under this framework, manufacturers use part of the credit value to reimburse electricity generators, offsetting potential higher biogas electricity generation cost. The remaining credit value is passed on to consumers as an annual PEV rebate to stimulate PEV sales. An iterative simulation framework is developed to fulfill two tasks: (a) to estimate the annual rebate amounts and their upfront value to consumers based on various factors, such as vehicle mileage, E–RIN equivalence value, and biogas capacity, and (b) to evaluate potential impacts of the E–RIN program on electrification of the future light–duty vehicles (LDVs) and energy use. The annual rebate amount varies by vehicle technology and could be up to 870/year for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and range between 230 and 825/yearmore » for plug–in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) depending on the electric range. These per vehicle rebates decrease when demand for electricity exceeds biogas electricity availability. The effectiveness of the program as modeled here is subject to different factors, such as the E–RIN equivalence value, biogas electricity generation cost, biogas electricity generation capacity, and consumers’ valuation of the E–RIN rebate. As a result, our modeling results indicate that an E–RIN program has the potential to produce nearly 12 billion in E–RIN credits annually and to significantly increase PEV annual sales by up to 2.3 million and the PEV population by about 19.7 million in 2030.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [2]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Knoxville, TN (United States)
  2. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1488869
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1488870; OSTI ID: 1494006
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Published Article
Journal Name:
Global Change Biology. Bioenergy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1757-1693
Publisher:
Wiley
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; bioelectricity; biogas; consumer choice; electric vehicle; renewable fuel standards; renewable identification number

Citation Formats

Xie, Fei, Lin, Zhenhong, and Podkaminer, Kara. Could a bioenergy program stimulate electric vehicle market penetration? Potential impacts of biogas to electricity annual rebate program. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12581.
Xie, Fei, Lin, Zhenhong, & Podkaminer, Kara. Could a bioenergy program stimulate electric vehicle market penetration? Potential impacts of biogas to electricity annual rebate program. United States. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12581.
Xie, Fei, Lin, Zhenhong, and Podkaminer, Kara. Sat . "Could a bioenergy program stimulate electric vehicle market penetration? Potential impacts of biogas to electricity annual rebate program". United States. doi:10.1111/gcbb.12581.
@article{osti_1488869,
title = {Could a bioenergy program stimulate electric vehicle market penetration? Potential impacts of biogas to electricity annual rebate program},
author = {Xie, Fei and Lin, Zhenhong and Podkaminer, Kara},
abstractNote = {The biogas–to–electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) allows for Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be generated when electricity produced from biogas is used in the transportation sector. Though approved as a general pathway, EPA has proposed multiple credit allocation methods to functionalize this pathway. This study describes and evaluates a potential credit allocation framework where vehicle manufacturers generate electricity RIN (E–RIN) credits and use these credits to increase the sales of plug–in electric vehicles (PEVs). Under this framework, manufacturers use part of the credit value to reimburse electricity generators, offsetting potential higher biogas electricity generation cost. The remaining credit value is passed on to consumers as an annual PEV rebate to stimulate PEV sales. An iterative simulation framework is developed to fulfill two tasks: (a) to estimate the annual rebate amounts and their upfront value to consumers based on various factors, such as vehicle mileage, E–RIN equivalence value, and biogas capacity, and (b) to evaluate potential impacts of the E–RIN program on electrification of the future light–duty vehicles (LDVs) and energy use. The annual rebate amount varies by vehicle technology and could be up to 870/year for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and range between 230 and 825/year for plug–in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) depending on the electric range. These per vehicle rebates decrease when demand for electricity exceeds biogas electricity availability. The effectiveness of the program as modeled here is subject to different factors, such as the E–RIN equivalence value, biogas electricity generation cost, biogas electricity generation capacity, and consumers’ valuation of the E–RIN rebate. As a result, our modeling results indicate that an E–RIN program has the potential to produce nearly 12 billion in E–RIN credits annually and to significantly increase PEV annual sales by up to 2.3 million and the PEV population by about 19.7 million in 2030.},
doi = {10.1111/gcbb.12581},
journal = {Global Change Biology. Bioenergy},
issn = {1757-1693},
number = 4,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {12}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record at 10.1111/gcbb.12581

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