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Title: US alternative jet fuel deployment scenario analyses identifying key drivers and geospatial patterns for the first billion gallons ,

Abstract

The aviation sector's commitments to carbon-neutral growth in international aviation starting in 2020, and the desire to improve supply surety, price stability, and the environmental performance of aviation fuels, have led to broad interest in sustainable alternative jet fuels. Here, we use the system-dynamics-based biomass scenario model (BSM), focused on alternative jet fuel production capacity evolution, and the geospatially explicit Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT), focused on optimal feedstock and fuel flows over the transportation system, to explore the incentive effects on alternative jet fuel production capacity trajectories and potential geospatial patterns of production and delivery in the USA. Scenarios presented here focus on readily available waste feedstocks (waste fats, oils and greases, municipal solid waste, and crop and forestry residues) and conversion technologies included in the ASTM D7566 synthesized aviation turbine fuels specification. The BSM modeling of possible deployment trajectories from 2015 to 2045 suggests that up to 8 billion gallons may be available by 2045 depending on the policies and incentives implemented. Both approaches suggest that 200 million to 1 billion gallons per year of alternative jet fuel production are possible in 2030 given multiple incentives and a favorable investment climate, and that capital costs andmore » technology maturation rates will affect deployment of different fuel production technologies, and therefore the feedstocks needed. Further collaboration on these modeling approaches would reduce methodological blind spots while providing insights into future industry trajectories.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [11];  [12]
  1. Energy Analysis and Sustainability DivisionVolpe National Transportation Systems Center Cambridge MA USA
  2. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Denver W. Pkwy, Golden CO USA
  3. Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, COUSA and Thayer School of Engineering at Dartmouth Hanover NH USA
  4. Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies Cambridge MA USA
  5. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center Cambridge MA USA
  6. Composite Materials and Engineering CenterWashington State University Pullman WA USA
  7. Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringWashington State University Pullman WA USA
  8. Department of Agricultural and Resource EconomicsUniversity of Tennessee Knoxville TN USA
  9. Department of Natural Resources and SocietyUniversity of Idaho Moscow ID USA
  10. Environmental Measurement and Modeling DivisionVolpe National Transportation Systems Center Cambridge MA USA
  11. Office of Environment and EnergyFederal Aviation Administration Washington DC USA
  12. Bioenergy Technologies OfficeDepartment of Energy Washington DC USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1488833
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1484956
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-70732
Journal ID: ISSN 1932-104X
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308; AC36‐08GO28308
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Biofuels, Bioproducts & Biorefining
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1932-104X
Publisher:
Wiley
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; alternative jet fuel; aviation; biofuel; geospatial optimization; sustainable aviation fuel; systems dynamics modeling

Citation Formats

Lewis, Kristin C., Newes, Emily K., Peterson, Steven O., Pearlson, Matthew N., Lawless, Emily A., Brandt, Kristin, Camenzind, Dane, Wolcott, Michael P., English, Burton C., Latta, Gregory S., Malwitz, Andrew, Hileman, James I., Brown, Nathan L., and Haq, Zia. US alternative jet fuel deployment scenario analyses identifying key drivers and geospatial patterns for the first billion gallons ,. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1002/bbb.1951.
Lewis, Kristin C., Newes, Emily K., Peterson, Steven O., Pearlson, Matthew N., Lawless, Emily A., Brandt, Kristin, Camenzind, Dane, Wolcott, Michael P., English, Burton C., Latta, Gregory S., Malwitz, Andrew, Hileman, James I., Brown, Nathan L., & Haq, Zia. US alternative jet fuel deployment scenario analyses identifying key drivers and geospatial patterns for the first billion gallons ,. United States. doi:10.1002/bbb.1951.
Lewis, Kristin C., Newes, Emily K., Peterson, Steven O., Pearlson, Matthew N., Lawless, Emily A., Brandt, Kristin, Camenzind, Dane, Wolcott, Michael P., English, Burton C., Latta, Gregory S., Malwitz, Andrew, Hileman, James I., Brown, Nathan L., and Haq, Zia. Fri . "US alternative jet fuel deployment scenario analyses identifying key drivers and geospatial patterns for the first billion gallons ,". United States. doi:10.1002/bbb.1951.
@article{osti_1488833,
title = {US alternative jet fuel deployment scenario analyses identifying key drivers and geospatial patterns for the first billion gallons ,},
author = {Lewis, Kristin C. and Newes, Emily K. and Peterson, Steven O. and Pearlson, Matthew N. and Lawless, Emily A. and Brandt, Kristin and Camenzind, Dane and Wolcott, Michael P. and English, Burton C. and Latta, Gregory S. and Malwitz, Andrew and Hileman, James I. and Brown, Nathan L. and Haq, Zia},
abstractNote = {The aviation sector's commitments to carbon-neutral growth in international aviation starting in 2020, and the desire to improve supply surety, price stability, and the environmental performance of aviation fuels, have led to broad interest in sustainable alternative jet fuels. Here, we use the system-dynamics-based biomass scenario model (BSM), focused on alternative jet fuel production capacity evolution, and the geospatially explicit Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT), focused on optimal feedstock and fuel flows over the transportation system, to explore the incentive effects on alternative jet fuel production capacity trajectories and potential geospatial patterns of production and delivery in the USA. Scenarios presented here focus on readily available waste feedstocks (waste fats, oils and greases, municipal solid waste, and crop and forestry residues) and conversion technologies included in the ASTM D7566 synthesized aviation turbine fuels specification. The BSM modeling of possible deployment trajectories from 2015 to 2045 suggests that up to 8 billion gallons may be available by 2045 depending on the policies and incentives implemented. Both approaches suggest that 200 million to 1 billion gallons per year of alternative jet fuel production are possible in 2030 given multiple incentives and a favorable investment climate, and that capital costs and technology maturation rates will affect deployment of different fuel production technologies, and therefore the feedstocks needed. Further collaboration on these modeling approaches would reduce methodological blind spots while providing insights into future industry trajectories.},
doi = {10.1002/bbb.1951},
journal = {Biofuels, Bioproducts & Biorefining},
issn = {1932-104X},
number = 3,
volume = 13,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {12}
}

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