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Title: Evaluating the Implications of Climate Projections on Heat Hardiness Zones for Green Infrastructure Planning

Abstract

Background: Green Infrastructure (GI) is widely being promoted as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding. Like urban flooding, tree species could be impacted by future climatic conditions. However, there have been limited studies on the implications of future climate on GI planning, mostly due to the lack of climate data at higher spatial resolutions. Objective: Here in this paper, we analyze the implications of climate projections on heat hardiness zones since this could impact the GI landscape in the coming years. This is an extension of our earlier work on evaluating impacts of climate projections on plant hardiness zones. Method: Using downscaled daily temperature data from ten Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for the historical (1980-2005) and projected (2025-2050) periods, we analyzed future heat hardiness zones in the watershed bounding Knox County, TN. We analyzed the implications of these outputs for the current list of suggested native and non-native tree species selected for GI in the study area. Results: All the models suggest that a considerable part of the study area will move into the next warmer heat zone. While most trees remain suitable for GI, several are at the limit of their ideal heat zones.more » Conclusion: The insights from this study will help to guide the selection and placement of GI across the study area. Specifically, it should help green infrastructure planners design better mitigation and adaptation strategies to achieve higher returns on investments as more cities are now investing in GI projects.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computational Sciences and Engineering Division
  2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division
  3. Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, United States
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1488700
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Sustainability and Disaster Risk Management
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 01; Journal ID: ISSN 2542-6141
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; green infrastructure; climate projection; adaptation; plant hardiness zones; urban planning; urban flooding

Citation Formats

Sylvester, Linda, Omitaomu, Olufemi A., Parish, Esther S., and Bhaduri, Budhendra L. Evaluating the Implications of Climate Projections on Heat Hardiness Zones for Green Infrastructure Planning. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.2174/2542614101666181113093548.
Sylvester, Linda, Omitaomu, Olufemi A., Parish, Esther S., & Bhaduri, Budhendra L. Evaluating the Implications of Climate Projections on Heat Hardiness Zones for Green Infrastructure Planning. United States. doi:10.2174/2542614101666181113093548.
Sylvester, Linda, Omitaomu, Olufemi A., Parish, Esther S., and Bhaduri, Budhendra L. Tue . "Evaluating the Implications of Climate Projections on Heat Hardiness Zones for Green Infrastructure Planning". United States. doi:10.2174/2542614101666181113093548.
@article{osti_1488700,
title = {Evaluating the Implications of Climate Projections on Heat Hardiness Zones for Green Infrastructure Planning},
author = {Sylvester, Linda and Omitaomu, Olufemi A. and Parish, Esther S. and Bhaduri, Budhendra L.},
abstractNote = {Background: Green Infrastructure (GI) is widely being promoted as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding. Like urban flooding, tree species could be impacted by future climatic conditions. However, there have been limited studies on the implications of future climate on GI planning, mostly due to the lack of climate data at higher spatial resolutions. Objective: Here in this paper, we analyze the implications of climate projections on heat hardiness zones since this could impact the GI landscape in the coming years. This is an extension of our earlier work on evaluating impacts of climate projections on plant hardiness zones. Method: Using downscaled daily temperature data from ten Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for the historical (1980-2005) and projected (2025-2050) periods, we analyzed future heat hardiness zones in the watershed bounding Knox County, TN. We analyzed the implications of these outputs for the current list of suggested native and non-native tree species selected for GI in the study area. Results: All the models suggest that a considerable part of the study area will move into the next warmer heat zone. While most trees remain suitable for GI, several are at the limit of their ideal heat zones. Conclusion: The insights from this study will help to guide the selection and placement of GI across the study area. Specifically, it should help green infrastructure planners design better mitigation and adaptation strategies to achieve higher returns on investments as more cities are now investing in GI projects.},
doi = {10.2174/2542614101666181113093548},
journal = {Sustainability and Disaster Risk Management},
issn = {2542-6141},
number = ,
volume = 01,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {11}
}