Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G.; Levine, Naomi M.; Alves, Luciana F.; Bonal, Damien; Camargo, Plinio B.; Fitzjarrald, David R.; Hayek, Matthew N.; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Saleska, Scott R.; da Silva, Rodrigo; Stark, Scott C.; Tapajós, Raphael P.; Wiedemann, Kenia T.; Zhang, Ke; Wofsy, Steven C.; Moorcroft, Paul R.

doi:10.1111/nph.15185

Title: Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

Journal Article · Tue May 22 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · New Phytologist

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15185· OSTI ID:1487084

^[1]; Knox, Ryan G. ^[2]; Levine, Naomi M. ^[3];

^[3]; Bonal, Damien ^[4]; Camargo, Plinio B. ^[5]; Fitzjarrald, David R. ^[6]; Hayek, Matthew N. ^[7]; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia ^[8]; Saleska, Scott R. ^[9]; da Silva, Rodrigo ^[10]; Stark, Scott C. ^[11]; Tapajós, Raphael P. ^[10]; Wiedemann, Kenia T. ^[7]; Zhang, Ke ^[12]; Wofsy, Steven C. ^[7]; Moorcroft, Paul R. ^[7]

Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States); California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
INRA, UMR EEF (France)
Universidade de São Paulo (Brazil)
State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States)
Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
University of Technology Sydney (Australia) ; Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, , Santarém, PA (United States)
Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States)
Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China)

The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2–7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss >20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km²) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1487084

Journal Information:: New Phytologist, Vol. 219, Issue 3; ISSN 0028-646X

Publisher:: WileyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 49 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (116)

Biogeographic distributions of neotropical trees reflect their directly measured drought tolerances Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane; Galbraith, David; Dexter, Kyle G. Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-08105-8	journal	August 2017
Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest Malhi, Y.; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Galbraith, D. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 49 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0804619106	journal	February 2009
Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model caused by ecological scale limitations Fisher, Rosie; McDowell, Nate; Purves, Drew New Phytologist, Vol. 187, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03340.x	journal	July 2010
Photosynthetic seasonality of global tropical forests constrained by hydroclimate Guan, Kaiyu; Pan, Ming; Li, Haibin Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2382	journal	March 2015
Amazon forest response to repeated droughts: AMAZON FOREST RESPONSE TO DROUGHTS Feldpausch, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Brienen, R. J. W. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 30, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005133	journal	July 2016
The regional variation of aboveground live biomass in old-growth Amazonian forests Malhi, Yadvinder; Wood, Daniel; Baker, Timothy R. Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01120.x	journal	July 2006
Comparing Tropical Forest Projections from Two Generations of Hadley Centre Earth System Models, HadGEM2-ES and HadCM3LC Good, Peter; Jones, Chris; Lowe, Jason Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00366.1	journal	January 2013
Changing Amazon biomass and the role of atmospheric CO ₂ concentration, climate, and land use : CHANGING AMAZON BIOMASS de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Galbraith, David; Zhang, Ke Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 30, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005135	journal	January 2016
Climatic variability and vegetation vulnerability in Amazônia Hutyra, L. R.; Munger, J. W.; Nobre, C. A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024981	journal	January 2005
Climate change and thresholds of biome shifts in Amazonia: CLIMATE CHANGE AND AMAZON BIOME SHIFTS Salazar, Luis Fernando; Nobre, Carlos A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043538	journal	September 2010
Relationships between soil hydrology and forest structure and composition in the southern Brazilian Amazon Jirka, Stefan; McDonald, Andrew J.; Johnson, Mark S. Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 18, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2007.tb02529.x	journal	February 2007
Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests McDowell, Nate; Allen, Craig D.; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina New Phytologist, Vol. 219, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15027	journal	February 2018
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought Powell, Thomas L.; Galbraith, David R.; Christoffersen, Bradley O. New Phytologist, Vol. 200, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12390	journal	July 2013
Global patterns of drought recovery Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M. Nature, Vol. 548, Issue 7666 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23021	journal	August 2017
The Skew-normal Distribution and Related Multivariate Families* Azzalini, Adelchi Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Vol. 32, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9469.2005.00426.x	journal	June 2005
How well can CMIP5 simulate precipitation and its controlling processes over tropical South America? Yin, Lei; Fu, Rong; Shevliakova, Elena Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 11-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1582-y	journal	November 2012
Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon Duffy, Philip B.; Brando, Paulo; Asner, Gregory P. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 43 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421010112	journal	October 2015
Drought and ecosystem carbon cycling van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.; Ciais, P. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 151, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.01.018	journal	July 2011
Leaf development and demography explain photosynthetic seasonality in Amazon evergreen forests Wu, J.; Albert, L. P.; Lopes, A. P. Science, Vol. 351, Issue 6276 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad5068	journal	February 2016
Root niche separation can explain avoidance of seasonal drought stress and vulnerability of overstory trees to extended drought in a mature Amazonian forest: ROOT NICHE SEPARATION AS DROUGHT AVOIDANCE STRATEGY Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Wofsy, Steven C. Water Resources Research, Vol. 48, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR011972	journal	December 2012
Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection Fu, R.; Yin, L.; Li, W. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, Issue 45 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302584110	journal	October 2013
Drought-mortality relationships for tropical forests Phillips, Oliver L.; van der Heijden, Geertje; Lewis, Simon L. New Phytologist, Vol. 187, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03359.x	journal	July 2010
Climate change will increase savannas at the expense of forests and treeless vegetation in tropical and subtropical Americas Anadón, José D.; Sala, Osvaldo E.; Maestre, Fernando T. Journal of Ecology, Vol. 102, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12325	journal	October 2014
Hydrologic resilience and Amazon productivity Ahlström, Anders; Canadell, Josep G.; Schurgers, Guy Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00306-z	journal	August 2017
In situ responses to elevated CO2 in tropical forest understorey plants WUrth, M. K. R.; Winter, K.; KOrner, Ch. Functional Ecology, Vol. 12, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2435.1998.00278.x	journal	December 1998
Drought tolerance as predicted by leaf water potential at turgor loss point varies strongly across species within an Amazonian forest Maréchaux, Isabelle; Bartlett, Megan K.; Sack, Lawren Functional Ecology, Vol. 29, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.12452	journal	April 2015
Model-data synthesis for the next generation of forest free-air CO ₂ enrichment (FACE) experiments Norby, Richard J.; De Kauwe, Martin G.; Domingues, Tomas F. New Phytologist, Vol. 209, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.13593	journal	August 2015
Recent advances in ecosystem-atmosphere interactions: an ecological perspective Moorcroft, P. R. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 270, Issue 1521 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2002.2251	journal	June 2003
Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L. Global Change Biology, Vol. 24, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13910	journal	October 2017
Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change Huntingford, Chris; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Galbraith, David Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1741	journal	March 2013
Carbon Balance and Vegetation Dynamics in an Old-Growth Amazonian Forest Rice, Amy H.; Pyle, Elizabeth Hammond; Saleska, Scott R. Ecological Applications, Vol. 14, Issue sp4 https://doi.org/10.1890/02-6006	journal	August 2004
The Amazon basin in transition Davidson, Eric A.; de Araújo, Alessandro C.; Artaxo, Paulo Nature, Vol. 481, Issue 7381 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10717	journal	January 2012
The response of tropical rainforests to drought—lessons from recent research and future prospects Bonal, Damien; Burban, Benoit; Stahl, Clément Annals of Forest Science, Vol. 73, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-015-0522-5	journal	March 2016
Fine root dynamics for forests on contrasting soils in the Colombian Amazon Jiménez, E. M.; Moreno, F. H.; Peñuela, M. C. Biogeosciences, Vol. 6, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-2809-2009	journal	January 2009
Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability Cox, Peter M.; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B. Nature, Vol. 494, Issue 7437 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11882	journal	February 2013
Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America Medvigy, David; Moorcroft, Paul R. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 367, Issue 1586 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0253	journal	January 2012
Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species Zimmermann, N. E.; Yoccoz, N. G.; Edwards, T. C. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue Supplement_2 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901643106	journal	November 2009
Climate Change, Deforestation, and the Fate of the Amazon Malhi, Y.; Roberts, J. T.; Betts, R. A. Science, Vol. 319, Issue 5860 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1146961	journal	January 2008
Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes? Cannon, Alex J.; Sobie, Stephen R.; Murdock, Trevor Q. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1	journal	September 2015
Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Malhi, Yadvinder; Huntingford, Chris Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1934 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0238	journal	January 2011
Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest Phillips, O. L.; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Lewis, S. L. Science, Vol. 323, Issue 5919 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1164033	journal	March 2009
Responses of terrestrial ecosystems and carbon budgets to current and future environmental variability Medvigy, D.; Wofsy, S. C.; Munger, J. W. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0912032107	journal	April 2010
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Data and Services for Research and Applications Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Teng, William Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00152.1	journal	September 2012
El Niño drought increased canopy turnover in Amazon forests Leitold, Veronika; Morton, Douglas C.; Longo, Marcos New Phytologist, Vol. 219, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15110	journal	March 2018
Dynamics of carbon, biomass, and structure in two Amazonian forests: CARBON DYNAMICS IN TWO AMAZONIAN FORESTS Pyle, Elizabeth Hammond; Santoni, Gregory W.; Nascimento, Henrique E. M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 113, Issue G1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000592	journal	March 2008
Mortality of Large Trees and Lianas Following Experimental Drought in an Amazon Forest Nepstad, Daniel C.; Tohver, Ingrid Marisa; Ray, David Ecology, Vol. 88, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1890/06-1046.1	journal	September 2007
Present-day and future Amazonian precipitation in global climate models: CMIP5 versus CMIP3 Joetzjer, E.; Douville, H.; Delire, C. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 11-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1644-1	journal	January 2013
Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions Hirota, M.; Holmgren, M.; Van Nes, E. H. Science, Vol. 334, Issue 6053 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1210657	journal	October 2011
Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten New Phytologist, Vol. 187, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03318.x	journal	June 2010
Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST Erfanian, Amir; Wang, Guiling; Fomenko, Lori Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05373-2	journal	July 2017
Threshold Responses to Soil Moisture Deficit by Trees and Soil in Tropical Rain Forests: Insights from Field Experiments Meir, Patrick; Wood, Tana E.; Galbraith, David R. BioScience, Vol. 65, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biv107	journal	August 2015
A Method for Scaling Vegetation Dynamics: The Ecosystem Demography Model (ED) Moorcroft, P. R.; Hurtt, G. C.; Pacala, S. W. Ecological Monographs, Vol. 71, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.2307/3100036	journal	November 2001
Spatial and temporal rainfall variability near the Amazon-Tapajós confluence: EASTERN AMAZON RAINFALL VARIABILITY Fitzjarrald, David R.; Sakai, Ricardo K.; Moraes, Osvaldo L. L. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 113, Issue G1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000596	journal	March 2008
Distribution of aboveground live biomass in the Amazon basin: AGLB IN THE AMAZON BASIN Saatchi, S. S.; Houghton, R. A.; Dos Santos AlvalÁ, R. C. Global Change Biology, Vol. 13, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01323.x	journal	January 2007
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 Meinshausen, Malte; Smith, S. J.; Calvin, K. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z	journal	August 2011
Differences in xylem and leaf hydraulic traits explain differences in drought tolerance among mature Amazon rainforest trees Powell, Thomas L.; Wheeler, James K.; de Oliveira, Alex A. R. Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13731	journal	May 2017
Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin: Climatological and hydrological context of recent floods Marengo, Jose Antonio; Tomasella, Javier; Soares, Wagner R. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 107, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0465-1	journal	June 2011
Drought impact on forest carbon dynamics and fluxes in Amazonia Doughty, Christopher E.; Metcalfe, D. B.; Girardin, C. A. J. Nature, Vol. 519, Issue 7541 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14213	journal	March 2015
Diversity in plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests Xu, Xiangtao; Medvigy, David; Powers, Jennifer S. New Phytologist, Vol. 212, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14009	journal	May 2016
Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1 Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040000	journal	January 2009
Patterns of water and heat flux across a biome gradient from tropical forest to savanna in Brazil da Rocha, Humberto R.; Manzi, Antonio O.; Cabral, Osvaldo M. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000640	journal	January 2009
Exploring the range of climate biome projections for tropical South America: The role of CO ₂ fertilization and seasonality : FUTURE BIOME DISTRIBUTION IN SOUTH AMERICA Lapola, David M.; Oyama, Marcos D.; Nobre, Carlos A. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 23, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003357	journal	July 2009
Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Levine, Naomi M.; Christoffersen, Bradley O. Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13442	journal	August 2016
Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions Brando, P. M.; Balch, J. K.; Nepstad, D. C. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1305499111	journal	April 2014
Projected strengthening of Amazonian dry season by constrained climate model simulations Boisier, Juan P.; Ciais, Philippe; Ducharne, Agnès Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2658	journal	June 2015
Resilience of Amazon forests emerges from plant trait diversity Sakschewski, Boris; von Bloh, Werner; Boit, Alice Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3109	journal	August 2016
Soil moisture depletion under simulated drought in the Amazon: impacts on deep root uptake Markewitz, Daniel; Devine, Scott; Davidson, Eric A. New Phytologist, Vol. 187, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03391.x	journal	July 2010
From tropics to tundra: Global convergence in plant functioning Reich, P. B.; Walters, M. B.; Ellsworth, D. S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 94, Issue 25 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.94.25.13730	journal	December 1997
Climate-Driven Increases in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 1982 to 1999 Nemani, R. R. Science, Vol. 300, Issue 5625 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1082750	journal	June 2003
The Growth–Defense Trade-Off and Habitat Specialization by Plants in Amazonian Forests Fine, Paul V. A.; Miller, Zachariah J.; Mesones, Italo Ecology, Vol. 87, Issue sp7 https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[150:TGTAHS]2.0.CO;2	journal	July 2006
Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015–2016 Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep33130	journal	September 2016
Development of a 50-Year High-Resolution Global Dataset of Meteorological Forcings for Land Surface Modeling Sheffield, Justin; Goteti, Gopi; Wood, Eric F. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3790.1	journal	July 2006
Phosphorus feedbacks constraining tropical ecosystem responses to changes in atmospheric CO ₂ and climate : PHOSPHORUS AND TROPICAL CARBON CYCLE Yang, Xiaojuan; Thornton, Peter E.; Ricciuto, Daniel M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069241	journal	July 2016
‘Tipping points’ for the Amazon forest Nobre, Carlos Afonso; Borma, Laura De Simone Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.003	journal	October 2009
Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents Saatchi, S. S.; Harris, N. L.; Brown, S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1019576108	journal	May 2011
Impact of severe dry season on net ecosystem exchange in the Neotropical rainforest of French Guiana Bonal, Damien; Bosc, Alexandre; Ponton, StÉPhane Global Change Biology, Vol. 14, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01610.x	journal	August 2008
What drives the seasonality of photosynthesis across the Amazon basin? A cross-site analysis of eddy flux tower measurements from the Brasil flux network Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; da Rocha, Humberto R.; Hutyra, Lucy R. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 182-183 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.04.031	journal	December 2013
Hydrometeorological effects of historical land-conversion in an ecosystem-atmosphere model of Northern South America Knox, R. G.; Longo, M.; Swann, A. L. S. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 19, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-241-2015	journal	January 2015
The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO _2, and land use Zhang, Ke; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Galbraith, David R. Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12903	journal	May 2015
A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12023	journal	October 2012
Tropical forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO2: current knowledge and opportunities for future research Cernusak, Lucas A.; Winter, Klaus; Dalling, James W. Functional Plant Biology, Vol. 40, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1071/FP12309	journal	January 2013
Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13355	journal	June 2016
Intensification of the Amazon hydrological cycle over the last two decades: AMAZON HYDROLOGIC CYCLE INTENSIFICATION Gloor, M.; Brienen, R. J. W.; Galbraith, D. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50377	journal	May 2013
The 2010 Amazon Drought Lewis, S. L.; Brando, P. M.; Phillips, O. L. Science, Vol. 331, Issue 6017 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1200807	journal	February 2011
High-resolution hydraulic parameter maps for surface soils in tropical South America Marthews, T. R.; Quesada, C. A.; Galbraith, D. R. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-711-2014	journal	January 2014
GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle Schneider, Udo; Becker, Andreas; Finger, Peter Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 115, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x	journal	March 2013
Effect of 7 yr of experimental drought on vegetation dynamics and biomass storage of an eastern Amazonian rainforest da Costa, Antonio Carlos Lola; Galbraith, David; Almeida, Samuel New Phytologist, Vol. 187, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03309.x	journal	June 2010
Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink Brienen, R. J. W.; Phillips, O. L.; Feldpausch, T. R. Nature, Vol. 519, Issue 7543 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14283	journal	March 2015
Modelling ecological systems in a changing world Evans, Matthew R. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 367, Issue 1586 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0172	journal	January 2012
On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G. Ecosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00203.1	journal	August 2015
Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management Folke, Carl; Carpenter, Steve; Walker, Brian Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Vol. 35, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.35.021103.105711	journal	December 2004
Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change Galbraith, David; Levy, Peter E.; Sitch, Stephen New Phytologist, Vol. 187, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03350.x	journal	July 2010
Death from drought in tropical forests is triggered by hydraulics not carbon starvation Rowland, L.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Galbraith, D. R. Nature, Vol. 528, Issue 7580 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15539	journal	November 2015
A Method for Scaling Vegetation Dynamics: the Ecosystem Demography Model (ed) Moorcroft, P. R.; Hurtt, G. C.; Pacala, S. W. Ecological Monographs, Vol. 71, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9615(2001)071[0557:AMFSVD]2.0.CO;2	journal	November 2001
Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change Levine, Naomi M.; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1511344112	journal	December 2015
Future deforestation in the Amazon and consequences for South American climate Swann, Abigail L. S.; Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 214-215 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.07.006	journal	December 2015
White-Sand Vegetation of Brazilian Amazonia Anderson, Anthony B. Biotropica, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.2307/2388125	journal	September 1981
The large influence of climate model bias on terrestrial carbon cycle simulations Ahlström, Anders; Schurgers, Guy; Smith, Benjamin Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014004	journal	January 2017
Decreased water limitation under elevated CO ₂ amplifies potential for forest carbon sinks Farrior, Caroline E.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Dybzinski, Ray Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1506262112	journal	May 2015
Mechanistic scaling of ecosystem function and dynamics in space and time: Ecosystem Demography model version 2 Medvigy, D.; Wofsy, S. C.; Munger, J. W. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, Issue G1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JG000812	journal	January 2009
The Drought of Amazonia in 2005 Marengo, José A.; Nobre, Carlos A.; Tomasella, Javier Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1600.1	journal	February 2008
Vegetation-atmosphere-soil nutrient feedbacks in the Amazon for different deforestation scenarios Senna, Mônica Carneiro Alves; Costa, Marcos Heil; Pires, Gabrielle Ferreira Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, Issue D4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010401	journal	January 2009
Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble Boulton, Chris A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Good, Peter Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13733	journal	June 2017
Global Land Precipitation: A 50-yr Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations Chen, Mingyue; Xie, Pingping; Janowiak, John E. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 3, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0249:GLPAYM>2.0.CO;2	journal	June 2002
Carbon in Amazon Forests: Unexpected Seasonal Fluxes and Disturbance-Induced Losses Saleska, S. R. Science, Vol. 302, Issue 5650 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1091165	journal	November 2003
Predictive Models of Forest Dynamics Purves, D.; Pacala, S. Science, Vol. 320, Issue 5882 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155359	journal	June 2008
Field-quantified responses of tropical rainforest aboveground productivity to increasing CO ₂ and climatic stress, 1997-2009 : TROPICAL RAINFOREST PRODUCTIVITY RESPONSES Clark, Deborah A.; Clark, David B.; Oberbauer, Steven F. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 118, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrg.20067	journal	May 2013
Seasonal controls on the exchange of carbon and water in an Amazonian rain forest: SEASONALITY OF AMAZONIAN CARBON FLUXES Hutyra, Lucy R.; Munger, J. William; Saleska, Scott R. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 112, Issue G3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JG000365	journal	August 2007
Wood density and vessel traits as distinct correlates of ecological strategy in 51 California coast range angiosperms Preston, Katherine A.; Cornwell, William K.; DeNoyer, Jeanne L. New Phytologist, Vol. 170, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2006.01712.x	journal	June 2006
High-resolution hydraulic parameter maps for surface soils in tropical South America Marthews, T.; Quesada, C. A.; Galbraith, D. R. NERC Environmental Information Data Centre https://doi.org/10.5285/4078678b-768f-43ff-abba-b87712f648e9	dataset	January 2014
Recent Amazon climate as background for possible ongoing and future changes of Amazon humid forests Gloor, M.; Barichivich, J.; Ziv, G. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 29, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gb005080	journal	September 2015
Relationship between soils and Amazon forest biomass: a landscape-scale study Laurance, William F.; Fearnside, Philip M.; Laurance, Susan G. Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 118, Issue 1-3 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-1127(98)00494-0	journal	June 1999
Spatial variation of soil respiration across a topographic gradient in a tropical rain forest in French Guiana Epron, Daniel; Bosc, Alexandre; Bonal, Damien Journal of Tropical Ecology, Vol. 22, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266467406003415	journal	July 2006
A Statistical Exploration of the Relationships of Soil Moisture Characteristics to the Physical Properties of Soils Cosby, B. J.; Hornberger, G. M.; Clapp, R. B. Water Resources Research, Vol. 20, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/wr020i006p00682	journal	June 1984
Hydro-climatic and ecological behaviour of the drought of Amazonia in 2005 Marengo, J. A.; Nobre, C. A.; Tomasella, J. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 363, Issue 1498 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.0015	journal	February 2008

Cited By (13)

The biophysics, ecology, and biogeochemistry of functionally diverse, vertically and horizontally heterogeneous ecosystems: the Ecosystem Demography model, version 2.2 – Part 1: Model description Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G.; Medvigy, David M. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019	journal	January 2019
Changes in Climate and Land Use Over the Amazon Region: Current and Future Variability and Trends Marengo, Jose A.; Souza, Carlos M.; Thonicke, Kirsten Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00228	journal	December 2018
Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajós Basin in the Brazilian Amazon Farinosi, Fabio; Arias, Mauricio E.; Lee, Eunjee Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001198	journal	August 2019
Local spatial variation in the population dynamics of two tree species in a region of Atlantic Rainforest, SE Brazil Rosa, Lucas Benedito Gonsales; Sampaio, Maurício Bonesso; Martins, Valéria Forni Brazilian Journal of Botany, Vol. 42, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40415-019-00563-w	journal	November 2019
The biophysics, ecology, and biogeochemistry of functionally diverse, vertically and horizontally heterogeneous ecosystems: the Ecosystem Demography model, version 2.2 – Part 2: Model evaluation for tropical South America Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G.; Levine, Naomi M. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019	journal	January 2019
Carbon exchange in an Amazon forest: from hours to years Hayek, Matthew N.; Longo, Marcos; Wu, Jin Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4833-2018	journal	January 2018
Reduced Carbon Dioxide Sink and Methane Source under Extreme Drought Condition in an Alpine Peatland Kang, Xiaoming; Yan, Liang; Cui, Lijuan Sustainability, Vol. 10, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.3390/su10114285	journal	November 2018
Observed variation in soil properties can drive large variation in modelled forest functioning and composition during tropical forest secondary succession Medvigy, David; Wang, Gangsheng; Zhu, Qing New Phytologist, Vol. 223, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15848	journal	April 2019
Tropical carbon sink accelerated by symbiotic dinitrogen fixation Levy-Varon, Jennifer H.; Batterman, Sarah A.; Medvigy, David Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13656-7	journal	December 2019
Review of drought impacts on carbon cycling in grassland ecosystems Lei, Tianjie; Feng, Jie; Zheng, Cuiying Frontiers of Earth Science, Vol. 14, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-019-0778-4	journal	January 2020
PTR-TOF-MS eddy covariance measurements of isoprene and monoterpene fluxes from an eastern Amazonian rainforest Sarkar, Chinmoy; Guenther, Alex B.; Park, Jeong-Hoo Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7179-2020	journal	January 2020
Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator Huang, Maoyi; Xu, Yi; Longo, Marcos Biogeosciences Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-129	journal	April 2019
The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Koven, Charles D. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 12, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021	journal	January 2021

Similar Records

Variation in hydroclimate sustains tropical forest biomass and promotes functional diversity

Journal Article · Wed Jun 20 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · New Phytologist · OSTI ID:1487084

Powell, Thomas L.; Koven, Charles D.; Johnson, Daniel J.; +9 more

Carbon exchange in an Amazon forest: from hours to years

Journal Article · Wed Aug 15 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Biogeosciences (Online) · OSTI ID:1487084

Hayek, Matthew N.; Longo, Marcos; Wu, Jin; +13 more

Partitioning CO2 fluxes with isotopologue measurements and modeling to understand mechanisms of forest carbon sequestration

Technical Report · Thu Jan 28 00:00:00 EST 2016 · OSTI ID:1487084

Saleska, Scott; Davidson, Eric; Finzi, Adrien; +2 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Amazon
biomass loss
climate change
droughts
ecosystem demography model
forest vulnerability
water and light competition

Title: Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

Citation Formats

References (116)

Cited By (13)

Similar Records

Related Subjects