Predictability of Extreme Precipitation in Western U.S. Watersheds Based on Atmospheric River Occurrence, Intensity, and Duration
In this study, we quantified the relationship between atmospheric rivers (ARs) and occurrence and magnitude of extreme precipitation in western U.S. watersheds, using AR tracking results of Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project and precipitation from a high-resolution regional climate simulation. Our analysis indicates that ARs have the potential of predicting extreme precipitation events at daily scale, with Gilbert Skill Score of ~0.2, and monthly extreme precipitation amount in the west coast watershed is closely related to AR intensity, with correlation coefficients of up to 0.6. The relationship between ARs and precipitation is most significant in the Pacific Northwest and California. Lastly, using K-means clustering algorithm, AR events can be classified into three categories with distinct features: weak ARs, flash ARs, and prolonged ARs. Flash ARs and prolonged ARs, though accounting for less than 50% of total AR events, are more important in controlling regional extreme precipitation patterns, and should be prioritized for future studies of hydrological extreme events.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; AC02‐05CH11231; AC06-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231
- OSTI ID:
- 1489284
- Alternate ID(s):
- OSTI ID: 1481425
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-136740
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 21; ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Web of Science
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journal | December 2019 |
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