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Title: An Assessment of GCM Performance at a Regional Scale Using a Score-Based Method

Abstract

A multicriteria score-based method was developed to assess the performances of 18 general circulation models (GCMs) in the study region from 1970 to 2005. The results indicate the following. (1) GCMs simulate temperature better than rainfall. The temporal and spatial distributions of simulated temperature performed well compared with those from the observations. In comparison to temperature, the spatial distribution of simulated precipitation performed poorly. Most of the GCMs underestimated temperature and overestimated precipitation. (2) The Grubbs test was used to detect anomalous moving changes in the rank score (RS) results; the inm-cm4 and ipsl-cm5b-lr models were rejected when simulating temperature, while the bnu-esm and canesm2 models performed poorly when simulating precipitation. (3) Adding or removing any criterion does not significantly influence the RS result, which indicates that the multicriteria score-based method is robust. The advantages of using multicriteria score-based method to assess GCMs performance were demonstrated, and this method also provides a more comprehensive assessment when compared with the single-criterion method. The multicriteria method could replace other criteria as the research requirements and could be easily extended to different study regions; the results could be used for better informed regional climate change impact analyses.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [1]
  1. Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003, China
  2. The Office of Yellow River Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, Zhengzhou 450003, China
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE), Power Systems Engineering Research and Development (R&D) (OE-10)
OSTI Identifier:
1481338
Grant/Contract Number:  
2018YFC0407403
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Published Article
Journal Name:
Advances in Meteorology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Advances in Meteorology Journal Volume: 2018; Journal ID: ISSN 1687-9309
Publisher:
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Country of Publication:
Egypt
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Shi, Fangxin, Wang, Zhihui, Qi, Liang, and Chen, Rongxu. An Assessment of GCM Performance at a Regional Scale Using a Score-Based Method. Egypt: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1155/2018/7641019.
Shi, Fangxin, Wang, Zhihui, Qi, Liang, & Chen, Rongxu. An Assessment of GCM Performance at a Regional Scale Using a Score-Based Method. Egypt. doi:10.1155/2018/7641019.
Shi, Fangxin, Wang, Zhihui, Qi, Liang, and Chen, Rongxu. Thu . "An Assessment of GCM Performance at a Regional Scale Using a Score-Based Method". Egypt. doi:10.1155/2018/7641019.
@article{osti_1481338,
title = {An Assessment of GCM Performance at a Regional Scale Using a Score-Based Method},
author = {Shi, Fangxin and Wang, Zhihui and Qi, Liang and Chen, Rongxu},
abstractNote = {A multicriteria score-based method was developed to assess the performances of 18 general circulation models (GCMs) in the study region from 1970 to 2005. The results indicate the following. (1) GCMs simulate temperature better than rainfall. The temporal and spatial distributions of simulated temperature performed well compared with those from the observations. In comparison to temperature, the spatial distribution of simulated precipitation performed poorly. Most of the GCMs underestimated temperature and overestimated precipitation. (2) The Grubbs test was used to detect anomalous moving changes in the rank score (RS) results; the inm-cm4 and ipsl-cm5b-lr models were rejected when simulating temperature, while the bnu-esm and canesm2 models performed poorly when simulating precipitation. (3) Adding or removing any criterion does not significantly influence the RS result, which indicates that the multicriteria score-based method is robust. The advantages of using multicriteria score-based method to assess GCMs performance were demonstrated, and this method also provides a more comprehensive assessment when compared with the single-criterion method. The multicriteria method could replace other criteria as the research requirements and could be easily extended to different study regions; the results could be used for better informed regional climate change impact analyses.},
doi = {10.1155/2018/7641019},
journal = {Advances in Meteorology},
number = ,
volume = 2018,
place = {Egypt},
year = {Thu Nov 08 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Thu Nov 08 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record at 10.1155/2018/7641019

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