Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

Smith, D. M.; Scaife, A. A.; Hawkins, E.; Bilbao, R.; Boer, G. J.; Caian, M.; Caron, L. ‐P.; Danabasoglu, G.; Delworth, T.; Doblas‐Reyes, F. J.; Doescher, R.; Dunstone, N. J.; Eade, R.; Hermanson, L.; Ishii, M.; Kharin, V.; Kimoto, M.; Koenigk, T.; Kushnir, Y.; Matei, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Menegoz, M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Mochizuki, T.; Müller, W. A.; Pohlmann, H.; Power, S.; Rixen, M.; Sospedra‐Alfonso, R.; Tuma, M.; Wyser, K.; Yang, X.; Yeager, S.

doi:10.1029/2018GL079362

Title: Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

Journal Article · Sun Nov 04 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362· OSTI ID:1480871

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Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road Exeter UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road Exeter UK, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
NCAS‐Climate, Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK
Barcelona Supercomputing Center Barcelona Spain
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
Rossby Centre Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping Sweden
National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton University Princeton NJ USA
Barcelona Supercomputing Center Barcelona Spain, ICREA Barcelona Spain
Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency Tsukuba Japan
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo Kashiwa Japan
Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory, Earth Institute Columbia University New York NY USA
Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie Hamburg Germany
Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Japan
Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie Hamburg Germany, Deutscher Wetterdienst Hamburg Germany
Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Australia
WCRP/WMO Geneva Switzerland

Abstract The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5‐year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)

Grant/Contract Number:: DE‐AC02‐05CH11231; AC02‐05CH11231; NA13OAR4310138; FKZ 01LP1519A; OCE‐1243015

OSTI ID:: 1480871

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1480872; OSTI ID: 1544163

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 45 Journal Issue: 21; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 23 works

Citation information provided by
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