skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Evaluating high-resolution forecasts of atmospheric CO and CO2 from a global prediction system during KORUS-AQ field campaign

Journal Article · · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
ORCiD logo [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3];  [2];  [4]; ORCiD logo [4];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5];  [5];  [5];  [6]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [7];  [8];  [5]; ORCiD logo [9]; ORCiD logo [10];  [11];  [12]
  1. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
  2. NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States)
  3. NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States); Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Hampton, VA (United States)
  4. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom)
  5. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  6. Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science, Daejeon (South Korea)
  7. Yonsei Univ., Seoul (South Korea)
  8. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa (Japan)
  9. Univ. Space Research Assoc., Columbia, MD (United States); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  10. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  11. Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX (United States)
  12. Konkuk Univ., Seoul (South Korea)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Accurate and consistent monitoring of anthropogenic combustion is imperative because of its significant health and environmental impacts, especially at city-to-regional scale. Here, we assess the performance of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global prediction system using measurements from aircraft, ground sites, and ships during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field study in May to June 2016. Our evaluation focuses on CAMS CO and CO2 analyses as well as two higher-resolution forecasts (16 and 9km horizontal resolution) to assess their capability in predicting combustion signatures over east Asia. Our results show a slight overestimation of CAMS CO2 with a mean bias against airborne CO2 measurements of 2.2, 0.7, and 0.3ppmv for 16 and 9km CO2 forecasts, and analyses, respectively. The positive CO2 mean bias in the 16km forecast appears to be consistent across the vertical profile of the measurements. In contrast, we find a moderate underestimation of CAMS CO with an overall bias against airborne CO measurements of -19.2 (16km), -16.7 (9km), and -20.7 ppbv (analysis). This negative CO mean bias is mostly seen below 750 hPa for all three forecast/analysis configurations. Despite these biases, CAMS shows a remarkable agreement with observed enhancement ratios of CO with CO2 over the Seoul metropolitan area and over the West (Yellow) Sea, where east Asian outflows were sampled during the study period. More efficient combustion is observed over Seoul (dCO dCO2 Combining double low line 9 ppbvppmv-1) compared to the West Sea (dCO dCO2 Combining double low line 28 ppbvppmv-1). This "combustion signature contrast" is consistent with previous studies in these two regions. CAMS captured this difference in enhancement ratios (Seoul: 8-12 ppbvppmv-1, the West Sea: ~ 30 ppbvppmv-1) regardless of forecast/analysis configurations. The correlation of CAMS CO bias with CO2 bias is relatively high over these two regions (Seoul: 0.64-0.90, the West Sea: ~ 0.80) suggesting that the contrast captured by CAMS may be dominated by anthropogenic emission ratios used in CAMS. However, CAMS shows poorer performance in terms of capturing local-to-urban CO and CO2 variability. Along with measurements at ground sites over the Korean Peninsula, CAMS produces too high CO and CO2 concentrations at the surface with steeper vertical gradients (~ 0.4 ppmvhPa-1 for CO2 and 3.5 ppbvhPa-1 for CO) in the morning samples than observed (~ 0.25 ppmvhPa-1 for CO2 and 1.7 ppbvhPa-1 for CO), suggesting weaker boundary layer mixing in the model. Lastly, we find that the combination of CO analyses (i.e., improved initial condition) and use of finer resolution (9km vs. 16km) generally produces better forecasts.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1479436
Journal Information:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online), Vol. 18, Issue 15; ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
European Geosciences UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 27 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (77)

Impact of biogenic volatile organic compounds on ozone production at the Taehwa Research Forest near Seoul, South Korea journal May 2013
Retrieval of MetOp-A/IASI CO profiles and validation with MOZAIC data journal January 2012
Improved quantification of Chinese carbon fluxes using CO 2 /CO correlations in Asian outflow journal January 2004
Monitoring of atmospheric composition using the thermal infrared IASI/MetOp sounder journal January 2009
An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980–2020 journal January 2007
Chemical Feedback From Decreasing Carbon Monoxide Emissions journal October 2017
An examination of the long-term CO records from MOPITT and IASI: comparison of retrieval methodology journal January 2015
Magnetite pollution nanoparticles in the human brain journal September 2016
Spatial and temporal variability in the ratio of trace gases emitted from biomass burning journal January 2011
Climate forcing and air quality change due to regional emissions reductions by economic sector journal January 2008
Finding Boundary Layer Top: Application of a Wavelet Covariance Transform to Lidar Backscatter Profiles journal August 2003
Elucidating severe urban haze formation in China journal November 2014
Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power journal January 2012
Global data set of biogenic VOC emissions calculated by the MEGAN model over the last 30 years journal January 2014
Impact of anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur deposition on ocean acidification and the inorganic carbon system journal September 2007
Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram journal April 2001
Pitfalls with the use of enhancement ratios or normalized excess mixing ratios measured in plumes to characterize pollution sources and aging journal January 2013
The ACOS CO 2 retrieval algorithm – Part II: Global X CO 2 data characterization journal January 2012
Tropospheric chemistry in the Integrated Forecasting System of ECMWF journal January 2015
Carbon monoxide distributions from the IASI/METOP mission: evaluation with other space-borne remote sensors journal January 2009
A Global Land Cover Climatology Using MODIS Data journal June 2014
A method for evaluating bias in global measurements of CO 2 total columns from space journal January 2011
Southern hemisphere medium-scale waves and total ozone disturbances in a spectral general circulation model journal January 1986
Atmospheric observations of carbon monoxide and fossil fuel CO 2 emissions from East Asia : EAST ASIA CO AND FOSSIL FUEL CO journal December 2011
Global tropospheric hydroxyl distribution, budget and reactivity journal January 2016
Data assimilation of satellite-retrieved ozone, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide with ECMWF's Composition-IFS journal January 2015
Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 System in the Oceans journal July 2004
The Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) mission: design, execution, and first results journal January 2010
Toward anthropogenic combustion emission constraints from space‐based analysis of urban CO 2 /CO sensitivity journal September 2013
On the representation of IAGOS/MOZAIC vertical profiles in chemical transport models: contribution of different error sources in the example of carbon monoxide journal October 2015
Aerosol analysis and forecast in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System: 2. Data assimilation journal January 2009
Enhancement of acidic gases in biomass burning impacted air masses over Canada journal January 1994
Aerosol analysis and forecast in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System: Forward modeling journal January 2009
Improved agreement of AIRS tropospheric carbon monoxide products with other EOS sensors using optimal estimation retrievals journal January 2010
The CAMS interim Reanalysis of Carbon Monoxide, Ozone and Aerosol for 2003–2015 journal January 2017
A biogenic CO 2 flux adjustment scheme for the mitigation of large-scale biases in global atmospheric CO 2 analyses and forecasts journal January 2016
Global Characterization of CO2 Column Retrievals from Shortwave-Infrared Satellite Observations of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 Mission journal February 2011
Planning, implementation, and scientific goals of the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC 4 RS) field mission : Planning SEAC4RS journal May 2016
Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission: Design, execution, and first results journal January 2003
Coupling global chemistry transport models to ECMWF's integrated forecast system journal January 2009
Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols journal January 1992
A linear CO chemistry parameterization in a chemistry-transport model: evaluation and application to data assimilation journal January 2010
What does the global mean OH concentration tell us? journal January 2001
The MOPITT Version 6 product: algorithm enhancements and validation journal January 2014
Patterns of CO 2 and radiocarbon across high northern latitudes during International Polar Year 2008 journal January 2011
Atmospheric chemistry in the Arctic and subarctic: Influence of natural fires, industrial emissions, and stratospheric inputs journal January 1992
China's Rapid Urbanization journal October 2013
Ability of the 4-D-Var analysis of the GOSAT BESD XCO 2 retrievals to characterize atmospheric CO 2 at large and synoptic scales journal January 2016
TOWARD A MONITORING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION: The GEMS Project journal August 2008
Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980–2010 period journal August 2011
Forecasting global atmospheric CO 2 journal January 2014
Preliminary validation of column-averaged volume mixing ratios of carbon dioxide and methane retrieved from GOSAT short-wavelength infrared spectra journal January 2011
CO 2 and its correlation with CO at a rural site near Beijing: implications for combustion efficiency in China journal January 2010
Carbon monoxide: A quantitative tracer for fossil fuel CO 2 ? journal January 2006
Transpacific transport of Asian anthropogenic aerosols and its impact on surface air quality in the United States journal January 2006
Long-term observations of black carbon mass concentrations at Fukue Island, western Japan, during 2009–2015: constraining wet removal rates and emission strengths from East Asia journal January 2016
Improving the inter-hemispheric gradient of total column atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 in simulations with the ECMWF semi-Lagrangian atmospheric global model journal January 2017
Toward a chemical reanalysis in a coupled chemistry-climate model: An evaluation of MOPITT CO assimilation and its impact on tropospheric composition: CHEMICAL RESPONSE FROM CO ASSIMILATION journal June 2016
Chemistry and transport of pollution over the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific: spring 2006 INTEX-B campaign overview and first results journal January 2009
Use and misuse of the reduced major axis for line-fitting journal November 2009
The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) mission journal January 2004
Climate, health, agricultural and economic impacts of tighter vehicle-emission standards journal March 2011
The ECMWF operational implementation of four-dimensional variational assimilation. I: Experimental results with simplified physics journal April 2000
Decadal change in carbon monoxide to nitrogen oxide ratio in U.S. vehicular emissions journal January 2002
A revised linear ozone photochemistry parameterization for use in transport and general circulation models: multi-annual simulations journal January 2007
Natural land carbon dioxide exchanges in the ECMWF integrated forecasting system: Implementation and offline validation: LAND CO journal June 2013
Global Concentrations of CO2 and CH4 Retrieved from GOSAT: First Preliminary Results journal January 2009
Comparisons of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) X CO 2 measurements with TCCON journal January 2017
Influence of regional-scale anthropogenic emissions on CO 2 distributions over the western North Pacific journal January 2003
The Total Carbon Column Observing Network
  • Wunch, Debra; Toon, Geoffrey C.; Blavier, Jean-François L.
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1943 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0240
journal May 2011
A revised linear ozone photochemistry parameterization for use in transport and general circulation models: multi-annual simulations journal January 2007
Monitoring of atmospheric composition using the thermal infrared IASI/MetOp sounder journal January 2009
An examination of the long-term CO records from MOPITT and IASI: comparison of retrieval methodology journal January 2015
Coupling global chemistry transport models to ECMWF's integrated forecast system journal January 2009
Carbon monoxide: A quantitative tracer for fossil fuel CO2? text January 2006
Improved agreement of AIRS tropospheric carbon monoxide products with other EOS sensors using optimal estimation retrievals collection January 2010
Coupling global chemistry transport models to ECMWF's integrated forecast system text January 2009

Cited By (11)

Ceilometer Monitoring of Boundary-Layer Height and Its Application in Evaluating the Dilution Effect on Air Pollution journal May 2019
Modeling Regional Pollution Transport Events During KORUS‐AQ: Progress and Challenges in Improving Representation of Land‐Atmosphere Feedbacks journal September 2018
Balance of Emission and Dynamical Controls on Ozone During the Korea‐United States Air Quality Campaign From Multiconstituent Satellite Data Assimilation journal January 2019
Source Contributions to Carbon Monoxide Concentrations During KORUS‐AQ Based on CAM‐chem Model Applications journal March 2019
Surface Meteorological Conditions and Boundary Layer Height Variations During an Air Pollution Episode in Nanjing, China journal March 2019
Evaluation of Regional CO 2 Mole Fractions in the ECMWF CAMS Real‐Time Atmospheric Analysis and NOAA CarbonTracker Near‐Real‐Time Reanalysis With Airborne Observations From ACT‐America Field Campaigns journal July 2019
Numerical simulation of atmospheric CO2 concentration and flux over the Korean Peninsula using WRF-VPRM model during Korus-AQ 2016 campaign journal January 2020
Secondary organic aerosol production from local emissions dominates the organic aerosol budget over Seoul, South Korea, during KORUS-AQ journal January 2018
Integration of airborne and ground observations of nitryl chloride in the Seoul metropolitan area and the implications on regional oxidation capacity during KORUS-AQ 2016 journal January 2019
Satellite data reveal a common combustion emission pathway for major cities in China journal January 2019
Modelling CO 2 weather – why horizontal resolution matters journal January 2019

Similar Records

A top-down assessment using OMI NO2 suggests an underestimate in the NOx emissions inventory in Seoul, South Korea, during KORUS-AQ
Journal Article · Fri Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) · OSTI ID:1479436
+8 more
Understanding and improving model representation of aerosol optical properties for a Chinese haze event measured during KORUS-AQ
Journal Article · Thu Jun 04 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) · OSTI ID:1479436
+26 more
An evaluation of global organic aerosol schemes using airborne observations
Journal Article · Wed Mar 04 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) · OSTI ID:1479436
+11 more

Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES