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Title: Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

Abstract

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km 2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km 2 considering sea level rise alone.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). School of Earth and Space Exploration
  2. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Department of Earth and Planetary Science
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1479392
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Science Advances
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 4; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher:
AAAS
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Shirzaei, Manoochehr, and Bürgmann, Roland. Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aap9234.
Shirzaei, Manoochehr, & Bürgmann, Roland. Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area. United States. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aap9234.
Shirzaei, Manoochehr, and Bürgmann, Roland. Wed . "Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area". United States. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aap9234. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1479392.
@article{osti_1479392,
title = {Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area},
author = {Shirzaei, Manoochehr and Bürgmann, Roland},
abstractNote = {The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km2 considering sea level rise alone.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aap9234},
journal = {Science Advances},
number = 3,
volume = 4,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Mar 07 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Wed Mar 07 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
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