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Title: New approaches for understanding the statistics of daily weather extremes in a changing climate. SARDESHMUKH_Final_Technical_Report_Extremes_DE-SC0006965

Abstract

This project quantified the changes in the mean climate and climate variability over the last 140 years, with emphasis on the changes in the tails of the probability distributions of daily variations, i.e. changes in extreme weather statistics. We were interested in not just the mean shifts of the distributions under climate change but also changes in the variance and higher statistical moments such as skewness and kurtosis. The project focused on two important aspects of the probability density functions (pdfs) of daily anomalies and their estimations from observational records of limited length. The first is that the pdfs are not Gaussian but are distinctively skewed and heavy tailed. This has large implications for the probabilities of extreme values and for estimating those probabilities from limited records. It also motivated our second focus, to estimate the pdfs from the longest available global datasets based on instrumental observations.

Authors:
 [1];  [1]
  1. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23). Climate and Environmental Sciences Division
OSTI Identifier:
1478289
Report Number(s):
DE-SC-0006965
DOE Contract Number:  
SC0006965
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Sardeshmukh, Prashant D., and Compo, Gilbert P. New approaches for understanding the statistics of daily weather extremes in a changing climate. SARDESHMUKH_Final_Technical_Report_Extremes_DE-SC0006965. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.2172/1478289.
Sardeshmukh, Prashant D., & Compo, Gilbert P. New approaches for understanding the statistics of daily weather extremes in a changing climate. SARDESHMUKH_Final_Technical_Report_Extremes_DE-SC0006965. United States. doi:10.2172/1478289.
Sardeshmukh, Prashant D., and Compo, Gilbert P. Fri . "New approaches for understanding the statistics of daily weather extremes in a changing climate. SARDESHMUKH_Final_Technical_Report_Extremes_DE-SC0006965". United States. doi:10.2172/1478289. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1478289.
@article{osti_1478289,
title = {New approaches for understanding the statistics of daily weather extremes in a changing climate. SARDESHMUKH_Final_Technical_Report_Extremes_DE-SC0006965},
author = {Sardeshmukh, Prashant D. and Compo, Gilbert P.},
abstractNote = {This project quantified the changes in the mean climate and climate variability over the last 140 years, with emphasis on the changes in the tails of the probability distributions of daily variations, i.e. changes in extreme weather statistics. We were interested in not just the mean shifts of the distributions under climate change but also changes in the variance and higher statistical moments such as skewness and kurtosis. The project focused on two important aspects of the probability density functions (pdfs) of daily anomalies and their estimations from observational records of limited length. The first is that the pdfs are not Gaussian but are distinctively skewed and heavy tailed. This has large implications for the probabilities of extreme values and for estimating those probabilities from limited records. It also motivated our second focus, to estimate the pdfs from the longest available global datasets based on instrumental observations.},
doi = {10.2172/1478289},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {10}
}