Direct Breakthrough Curve Prediction From Statistics of Heterogeneous Conductivity Fields

Hansen, Scott K.; Haslauer, Claus P.; Cirpka, Olaf A.; Vesselinov, Velimir Valentinov

doi:10.1002/2017WR020450

Title: Direct Breakthrough Curve Prediction From Statistics of Heterogeneous Conductivity Fields

Journal Article · Thu Jan 04 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Water Resources Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020450· OSTI ID:1477644

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Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
University of Tübingen (Germany)

In this paper, we present a methodology to predict the shape of solute breakthrough curves in heterogeneous aquifers at early times and/or under high degrees of heterogeneity, both cases in which the classical macrodispersion theory may not be applicable. The methodology relies on the observation that breakthrough curves in heterogeneous media are generally well described by lognormal distributions, and mean breakthrough times can be predicted analytically. The log-variance of solute arrival is thus sufficient to completely specify the breakthrough curves, and this is calibrated as a function of aquifer heterogeneity and dimensionless distance from a source plane by means of Monte Carlo analysis and statistical regression. Using the ensemble of simulated groundwater flow and solute transport realizations employed to calibrate the predictive regression, reliability estimates for the prediction are also developed. Additional theoretical contributions include heuristics for the time until an effective macrodispersion coefficient becomes applicable, and also an expression for its magnitude that applies in highly heterogeneous systems. Finally, it is seen that the results here represent a way to derive continuous time random walk transition distributions from physical considerations rather than from empirical field calibration.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-06NA25396

OSTI ID:: 1477644

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-16-22098

Journal Information:: Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 1; ISSN 0043-1397

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 11 works

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