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Title: Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil

Abstract

In this paper we perform a multi-model comparison to assess strategies for adaptation to climate change impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). The approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that a global emissions trajectory of an RCP 8.5 scenario would likely yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than an RCP 4.5 scenario. Adaptation modeling suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impact shocks, meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation. When including investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead to amore » lower total investment level.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1476988
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-130754
Journal ID: ISSN 0360-5442
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Energy (Oxford); Journal Volume: 164; Journal Issue: C
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Lucena, André F. P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R. R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and van der Zwaan, Bob. Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.005.
Lucena, André F. P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R. R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., & van der Zwaan, Bob. Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil. United States. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.005.
Lucena, André F. P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R. R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and van der Zwaan, Bob. Sat . "Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil". United States. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.005.
@article{osti_1476988,
title = {Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil},
author = {Lucena, André F. P. and Hejazi, Mohamad and Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline and Turner, Sean and Köberle, Alexandre C. and Daenzer, Kathryn and Rochedo, Pedro R. R. and Kober, Tom and Cai, Yongxia and Beach, Robert H. and Gernaat, David and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and van der Zwaan, Bob},
abstractNote = {In this paper we perform a multi-model comparison to assess strategies for adaptation to climate change impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). The approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that a global emissions trajectory of an RCP 8.5 scenario would likely yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than an RCP 4.5 scenario. Adaptation modeling suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impact shocks, meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation. When including investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead to a lower total investment level.},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.005},
journal = {Energy (Oxford)},
number = C,
volume = 164,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Sat Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}