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Title: Observed and Simulated Sensitivities of Spring Greenup to Preseason Climate in Northern Temperate and Boreal Regions: Climate control on spring phenology

Abstract

Vegetation phenology plays an important role in regulating land-atmosphere energy, water, and trace-gas exchanges. Changes in spring greenup (SG) have been documented in the past half-century in response to ongoing climate change. We use normalized difference vegetation index generated from NOAA's advanced very high resolution radiometer data in the Global Inventory Modeling and Monitoring Study project over the 1982–2005 period, coupled with climate reanalysis (Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction) to investigate the SG responses to preseason climate change in northern temperate and boreal regions. We compared these observed responses to the simulated SG responses to preseason climate inferred from the Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over 1982–2005. The observationally inferred SG suggests that there has been an advance of about 1 days per decade between 1982 and 2005 in the northern midlatitude to high latitude, with significant spatial heterogeneity. The spatial heterogeneity of the SG advance results from heterogeneity in the change of the preseason climate as well as varied vegetation responses to the preseason climate across biomes. The SG to preseason temperature sensitivity is highest in forests other than deciduous needleleaf forests, followed by temperate grasslands and woody savannas.more » The SG in deciduous needleleaf forests, open shrublands, and tundra is relatively insensitive to preseason temperature. Although the extent of regions where the SG is sensitive to preseason precipitation is smaller than the extent of regions where the SG is sensitive to preseason temperature, the biomes that are more sensitive to temperature are also more sensitive to precipitation, suggesting the interactive control of temperature and precipitation. Finally, in the mean, the CMIP5 ESMs reproduced the dominant latitudinal preseason climate trends and SG advances. However, large biases in individual ESMs for the preseason period, climate, and SG sensitivity imply needed model improvements to climate prediction and phenological process parameterizations.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Inst. of Atmospheric Physics; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
  3. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Inst. of Atmospheric Physics
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1476606
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1416604
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; DE‐AC02‐05CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 123; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Xu, Xiyan, Riley, William J., Koven, Charles D., and Jia, Gensuo. Observed and Simulated Sensitivities of Spring Greenup to Preseason Climate in Northern Temperate and Boreal Regions: Climate control on spring phenology. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2017JG004117.
Xu, Xiyan, Riley, William J., Koven, Charles D., & Jia, Gensuo. Observed and Simulated Sensitivities of Spring Greenup to Preseason Climate in Northern Temperate and Boreal Regions: Climate control on spring phenology. United States. doi:10.1002/2017JG004117.
Xu, Xiyan, Riley, William J., Koven, Charles D., and Jia, Gensuo. Thu . "Observed and Simulated Sensitivities of Spring Greenup to Preseason Climate in Northern Temperate and Boreal Regions: Climate control on spring phenology". United States. doi:10.1002/2017JG004117. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1476606.
@article{osti_1476606,
title = {Observed and Simulated Sensitivities of Spring Greenup to Preseason Climate in Northern Temperate and Boreal Regions: Climate control on spring phenology},
author = {Xu, Xiyan and Riley, William J. and Koven, Charles D. and Jia, Gensuo},
abstractNote = {Vegetation phenology plays an important role in regulating land-atmosphere energy, water, and trace-gas exchanges. Changes in spring greenup (SG) have been documented in the past half-century in response to ongoing climate change. We use normalized difference vegetation index generated from NOAA's advanced very high resolution radiometer data in the Global Inventory Modeling and Monitoring Study project over the 1982–2005 period, coupled with climate reanalysis (Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction) to investigate the SG responses to preseason climate change in northern temperate and boreal regions. We compared these observed responses to the simulated SG responses to preseason climate inferred from the Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over 1982–2005. The observationally inferred SG suggests that there has been an advance of about 1 days per decade between 1982 and 2005 in the northern midlatitude to high latitude, with significant spatial heterogeneity. The spatial heterogeneity of the SG advance results from heterogeneity in the change of the preseason climate as well as varied vegetation responses to the preseason climate across biomes. The SG to preseason temperature sensitivity is highest in forests other than deciduous needleleaf forests, followed by temperate grasslands and woody savannas. The SG in deciduous needleleaf forests, open shrublands, and tundra is relatively insensitive to preseason temperature. Although the extent of regions where the SG is sensitive to preseason precipitation is smaller than the extent of regions where the SG is sensitive to preseason temperature, the biomes that are more sensitive to temperature are also more sensitive to precipitation, suggesting the interactive control of temperature and precipitation. Finally, in the mean, the CMIP5 ESMs reproduced the dominant latitudinal preseason climate trends and SG advances. However, large biases in individual ESMs for the preseason period, climate, and SG sensitivity imply needed model improvements to climate prediction and phenological process parameterizations.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JG004117},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
issn = {2169-8953},
number = 1,
volume = 123,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {12}
}

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Changes in European spring phenology
    journal, January 2002

    • Ahas, R.; Aasa, A.; Menzel, A.
    • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 22, Issue 14
    • DOI: 10.1002/joc.818

    Growing seasons of Nordic mountain birch in northernmost Europe as indicated by long-term field studies and analyses of satellite images
    journal, July 2006

    • Shutova, E.; Wielgolaski, F. E.; Karlsen, S. R.
    • International Journal of Biometeorology, Vol. 51, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1007/s00484-006-0042-y

    Climate-associated changes in spring plant phenology in China
    journal, April 2011


    Investigating the relationship between NDVI and LAI in semi-arid grassland in Inner Mongolia using in-situ measurements
    journal, April 2008


    Is water availability really the main environmental factor controlling the phenology of woody vegetation in the central Sahel?
    journal, April 2012


    Earlier winter wheat heading dates and warmer spring in the U.S. Great Plains
    journal, December 2005


    Leaf phenology sensitivity to temperature in European trees: Do within-species populations exhibit similar responses?
    journal, May 2009


    Crop management and phenology trends in the U.S. Corn Belt: Impacts on yields, evapotranspiration and energy balance
    journal, July 2011


    Influences of temperature and precipitation before the growing season on spring phenology in grasslands of the central and eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
    journal, December 2011


    Increasing altitudinal gradient of spring vegetation phenology during the last decade on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
    journal, June 2014


    Effects of irrigation before sowing and plastic film mulching on yield and water uptake of spring wheat in semiarid Loess Plateau of China
    journal, June 2004


    Rapid advancement of spring in the High Arctic
    journal, June 2007


    SEIB–DGVM: A new Dynamic Global Vegetation Model using a spatially explicit individual-based approach
    journal, January 2007


    Precipitation and temperature are associated with advanced flowering phenology in a semi-arid grassland
    journal, September 2010


    Climatic change and rainfall patterns: Effects on semi-arid plant communities of the Iberian Southeast
    journal, December 2011


    Understanding regulatory networks and engineering for enhanced drought tolerance in plants
    journal, April 2006


    On the relationship of NDVI with leaf area index in a deciduous forest site
    journal, January 2005


    MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets
    journal, January 2010

    • Friedl, Mark A.; Sulla-Menashe, Damien; Tan, Bin
    • Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 114, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.016

    Leaf onset in the northern hemisphere triggered by daytime temperature
    journal, April 2015

    • Piao, Shilong; Tan, Jianguang; Chen, Anping
    • Nature Communications, Vol. 6, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7911

    Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model
    journal, February 2003


    Plant drought stress: effects, mechanisms and management
    journal, March 2009

    • Farooq, M.; Wahid, A.; Kobayashi, N.
    • Agronomy for Sustainable Development, Vol. 29, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1051/agro:2008021

    Winter and spring warming result in delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan Plateau
    journal, November 2010

    • Yu, H.; Luedeling, E.; Xu, J.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 51
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1012490107

    Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes
    journal, December 2012

    • Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Gouveia, C.; Camarero, J. J.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1207068110

    Green-up dates in the Tibetan Plateau have continuously advanced from 1982 to 2011
    journal, February 2013

    • Zhang, Geli; Zhang, Yangjian; Dong, Jinwei
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, Issue 11
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1210423110

    European plant phenology and climate as seen in a 20-year AVHRR land-surface parameter dataset
    journal, September 2004


    Change in snow phenology and its potential feedback to temperature in the Northern Hemisphere over the last three decades
    journal, January 2013


    Shifts in Arctic phenology in response to climate and anthropogenic factors as detected from multiple satellite time series
    journal, September 2013


    A tale of two springs: using recent climate anomalies to characterize the sensitivity of temperate forest phenology to climate change
    journal, May 2014


    Phenological response of tundra plants to background climate variation tested using the International Tundra Experiment
    journal, August 2013

    • Oberbauer, S. F.; Elmendorf, S. C.; Troxler, T. G.
    • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 368, Issue 1624
    • DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0481

    Changes in satellite-derived spring vegetation green-up date and its linkage to climate in China from 1982 to 2010: a multimethod analysis
    journal, December 2012

    • Cong, Nan; Wang, Tao; Nan, Huijuan
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12077

    Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades
    journal, November 2015

    • Bjorkman, Anne D.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Beamish, Alison L.
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13051

    Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green-up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau
    journal, April 2016

    • Shen, Miaogen; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Xiaoqiu
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13301

    A parameterization of leaf phenology for the terrestrial ecosystem component of climate models
    journal, January 2005


    Land surface phenology and temperature variation in the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program high-latitude transects
    journal, May 2005


    Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in temperate eastern China
    journal, July 2005


    Variations in satellite-derived phenology in China's temperate vegetation
    journal, April 2006


    Phenology of a northern hardwood forest canopy
    journal, July 2006


    Advanced snowmelt causes shift towards positive neighbour interactions in a subarctic tundra community
    journal, August 2006


    European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern
    journal, October 2006


    Trends and temperature response in the phenology of crops in Germany
    journal, August 2007


    Spring phenology in boreal Eurasia over a nearly century time scale
    journal, March 2008


    Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems
    journal, March 2010


    Remote sensing of larch phenological cycle and analysis of relationships with climate in the Alpine region
    journal, March 2010


    Terrestrial biosphere models need better representation of vegetation phenology: results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis
    journal, November 2011


    Leaf-out phenology of temperate woody plants: from trees to ecosystems: Tansley review
    journal, July 2011


    Leaf phenology as an optimal strategy for carbon gain in plants
    journal, February 1995

    • Kikuzawa, K.
    • Canadian Journal of Botany, Vol. 73, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1139/b95-019

    Is spring starting earlier?
    journal, January 2008


    Soil Water and Temperature Explain Canopy Phenology and Onset of Spring in a Semiarid Steppe
    journal, January 2015

    • Moore, Lynn M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bell, David M.
    • Great Plains Research, Vol. 25, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1353/gpr.2015.0027

    Earlier-Season Vegetation Has Greater Temperature Sensitivity of Spring Phenology in Northern Hemisphere
    journal, February 2014


    Global Warming and Flowering Times in Thoreau'S Concord: a Community Perspective
    journal, February 2008

    • Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Primack, Richard B.
    • Ecology, Vol. 89, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1890/07-0068.1

    Thermal Time, Chill Days and Prediction of Budburst in Picea sitchensis
    journal, December 1983

    • Cannell, M. G. R.; Smith, R. I.
    • The Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol. 20, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.2307/2403139

    Selecting a Model to Predict the Onset of Growth of Fagus sylvatica
    journal, February 1994

    • Kramer, Koen
    • The Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol. 31, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.2307/2404609

    A Climate-Vegetation Interaction Model: Simulating Physical and Biological Processes at the Surface
    journal, March 1995

    • Ji, Jinjun
    • Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 22, Issue 2/3
    • DOI: 10.2307/2845941

    Evaluation of Land Surface Models in Reproducing Satellite Derived Leaf Area Index over the High-Latitude Northern Hemisphere. Part II: Earth System Models
    journal, July 2013

    • Anav, Alessandro; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Friedlingstein, Pierre
    • Remote Sensing, Vol. 5, Issue 8
    • DOI: 10.3390/rs5083637

    Evaluation of Land Surface Models in Reproducing Satellite-Derived LAI over the High-Latitude Northern Hemisphere. Part I: Uncoupled DGVMs
    journal, October 2013

    • Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Anav, Alessandro; Friedlingstein, Pierre
    • Remote Sensing, Vol. 5, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.3390/rs5104819

    A Non-Stationary 1981–2012 AVHRR NDVI3g Time Series
    journal, July 2014

    • Pinzon, Jorge; Tucker, Compton
    • Remote Sensing, Vol. 6, Issue 8
    • DOI: 10.3390/rs6086929

    Evaluating Biosphere Model Estimates of the Start of the Vegetation Active Season in Boreal Forests by Satellite Observations
    journal, July 2016

    • Böttcher, Kristin; Markkanen, Tiina; Thum, Tea
    • Remote Sensing, Vol. 8, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.3390/rs8070580

    Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative
    journal, January 2015

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    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015

    Evaluation of soil moisture in CMIP5 simulations over the contiguous United States using in situ and satellite observations
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