skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping

Abstract

As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans-Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate-driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth-induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping-free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, Storrs CT USA
  2. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine CA USA
  3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1475071
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1479151; OSTI ID: 1510437
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-135168
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0012998; AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RLO1830; NNX14AH55A; 80NSSC17K0540; 80NSSC17K0416
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Published Article
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 45 Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth system modeling; Arctic; Emissions; Cloud feedbacks; Shipping; Sea ice

Citation Formats

Stephenson, Scott R., Wang, Wenshan, Zender, Charles S., Wang, Hailong, Davis, Steven J., and Rasch, Philip J. Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL078969.
Stephenson, Scott R., Wang, Wenshan, Zender, Charles S., Wang, Hailong, Davis, Steven J., & Rasch, Philip J. Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969
Stephenson, Scott R., Wang, Wenshan, Zender, Charles S., Wang, Hailong, Davis, Steven J., and Rasch, Philip J. 2018. "Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969.
@article{osti_1475071,
title = {Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping},
author = {Stephenson, Scott R. and Wang, Wenshan and Zender, Charles S. and Wang, Hailong and Davis, Steven J. and Rasch, Philip J.},
abstractNote = {As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans-Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate-driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth-induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping-free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078969},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1475071}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
issn = {0094-8276},
number = 18,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Fri Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record at https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 27 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research
journal, September 2013


Arctic surface temperature change to emissions of black carbon within Arctic or midlatitudes: ARCTIC CLIMATE RESPONSE TO BLACK CARBON
journal, July 2013


High Sensitivity of Arctic Liquid Clouds to Long-Range Anthropogenic Aerosol Transport: SENSITIVITY OF ARCTIC CLOUDS TO AEROSOLS
journal, January 2018


Resilience of persistent Arctic mixed-phase clouds
journal, December 2011


RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
journal, August 2011


The Shifting Geopolitics of Water in the Anthropocene
journal, February 2017


Viability of transarctic shipping routes: a literature review from the navigational and commercial perspectives
journal, September 2016


Analysis of the “Spinup” of a general circulation model
journal, January 1985


Impact of future Arctic shipping on high-latitude black carbon deposition: BC DEPOSITION FROM ARCTIC SHIPPING
journal, August 2013


Ship track observations of a reduced shortwave aerosol indirect effect in mixed-phase clouds: Ice-Cloud Indirect Effect in Ship-tracks
journal, October 2014


Intercomparison of the cloud water phase among global climate models: CLOUD WATER PHASE IN GCMs
journal, March 2014


Climate goals and computing the future of clouds
journal, January 2017


Sulfate Aerosol in the Arctic: Source Attribution and Radiative Forcing
journal, February 2018


Climate Penalty for Shifting Shipping to the Arctic
journal, November 2014


Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic
journal, July 2013


Challenges of Sea-Ice Prediction for Arctic Marine Policy and Planning
journal, December 2017


Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes: Trans-Arctic shipping in the 21st Century
journal, September 2016


Commercial Arctic shipping through the Northeast Passage: routes, resources, governance, technology, and infrastructure
journal, October 2014


Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios: AEROSOLS AND ARCTIC TEMPERATURE
journal, June 2016


Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols
journal, January 1992


Humidity trends imply increased sensitivity to clouds in a warming Arctic
journal, December 2015


The work of networks: Embedding firms, transport, and the state in the Russian Arctic oil and gas sector
journal, November 2015


Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations: ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT FROM CMIP5
journal, August 2012


Siberian Arctic black carbon sources constrained by model and observation
journal, January 2017


Changes in Arctic melt season and implications for sea ice loss: Stroeve et al.: Arctic melt season changes
journal, February 2014


Measurements of light-absorbing particles in snow across the Arctic, North America, and China: Effects on surface albedo: Effect of Observed BC on Surface Albedo
journal, October 2017