Patterns of Precipitation Change and Climatological Uncertainty among CMIP5 Models, with a Focus on the Midlatitude Pacific Storm Track

Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Anderson, Bruce T.

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00800.1

Title: Patterns of Precipitation Change and Climatological Uncertainty among CMIP5 Models, with a Focus on the Midlatitude Pacific Storm Track

Journal Article · Tue Sep 29 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00800.1· OSTI ID:1470741

Langenbrunner, Baird ^[1]; Neelin, J. David ^[1]; Lintner, Benjamin R. ^[2]; Anderson, Bruce T. ^[3]

Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States). Dept. of Environmental Sciences
Boston Univ., MA (United States). Dept. of Earth and Environment

Projections of modeled precipitation (P) change in global warming scenarios demonstrate marked intermodel disagreement at regional scales. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and maximum covariance analysis (MCA) are used to diagnose spatial patterns of disagreement in the simulated climatology and end-of-century P changes in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive. The term principal uncertainty pattern (PUP) is used for any robust mode calculated when applying these techniques to a multimodel ensemble. For selected domains in the tropics, leading PUPs highlight features at the margins of convection zones and in the Pacific cold tongue. The midlatitude Pacific storm track is emphasized given its relevance to wintertime P projections over western North America. The first storm-track PUP identifies a sensitive region of disagreement in P increases over the eastern midlatitude Pacific where the storm track terminates, related to uncertainty in an eastward extension of the climatological jet. The second PUP portrays uncertainty in a zonally asymmetric meridional shift of storm-track P, related to uncertainty in the extent of a poleward jet shift in the western Pacific. Both of these modes appear to arise primarily from intermodel differences in the response to radiative forcing, distinct from sampling of internal variability. The leading storm-track PUPs for P and zonal wind change exhibit similarities to the leading uncertainty patterns for the historical climatology, indicating important and parallel sensitivities in the eastern Pacific storm-track terminus region. However, expansion coefficients for climatological uncertainties tend to be weakly correlated with those for end-of-century change.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)

Contributing Organization:: World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0004975; AGS-1102838; AGS-1540518; AGS-1312865; NA11OAR4310099; NA14OAR4310274

OSTI ID:: 1470741

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 19; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 34 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (65)

Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle Allen, Myles R.; Ingram, William J. Nature, Vol. 419, Issue 6903 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092	journal	September 2002
Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures: Terrestrial Precipitation Trends Anderson, Bruce T.; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Langenbrunner, Baird Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062593	journal	February 2015
Patterns of Wintertime Jet Stream Variability and Their Relation to the Storm Tracks* Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Wallace, John M.; Wettstein, Justin J. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 67, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3270.1	journal	May 2010
Storm Tracks and Climate Change Bengtsson, Lennart; Hodges, Kevin I.; Roeckner, Erich Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3815.1	journal	August 2006
Twenty-First-Century Precipitation Changes over the Los Angeles Region Berg, Neil; Hall, Alex; Sun, Fengpeng Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00316.1	journal	January 2015
Implications of CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for climate projections in the western tropical Pacific Brown, Jaclyn N.; Sen Gupta, Alex; Brown, Josephine R. Climatic Change, Vol. 119, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0603-5	journal	November 2012
Changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 future climate projections Brown, Josephine R.; Moise, Aurel F.; Delage, Francois P. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 39, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1192-0	journal	September 2011
Impact of midlatitude stationary waves on regional Hadley cells and ENSO Caballero, Rodrigo; Anderson, Bruce T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039668	journal	January 2009
Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Change in CMIP5: Why the Rich Do Not Get Richer in the Tropics Chadwick, Robin; Boutle, Ian; Martin, Gill Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00543.1	journal	June 2013
CMIP5 Projection of Significant Reduction in Extratropical Cyclone Activity over North America Chang, Edmund K. M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00209.1	journal	December 2013
Medium-Range Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of Two Extreme Pacific Extratropical Cyclones Chang, Edmund K. M.; Zheng, Minghua; Raeder, Kevin Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 141, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00304.1	journal	January 2013
CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming: CMIP5 MODEL-PROJECTED STORM TRACK CHANGE Chang, Edmund K. M.; Guo, Yanjuan; Xia, Xiaoming Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D23 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018578	journal	December 2012
Analogous Pacific and Atlantic Meridional Modes of Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean Variability Chiang, John C. H.; Vimont, Daniel J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4953.1	journal	November 2004
Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” Mechanism in Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming Chou, Chia; Neelin, J. David; Chen, Chao-An Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2471.1	journal	April 2009
Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles Collins, Matthew; Booth, Ben B. B.; Bhaskaran, B. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 36, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0808-0	journal	May 2010
Diagnosing Northern Hemisphere Jet Portrayal in 17 CMIP3 Global Climate Models: Twentieth-Century Intermodel Variability Delcambre, Sharon C.; Lorenz, David J.; Vimont, Daniel J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00337.1	journal	July 2013
Diagnosing Northern Hemisphere Jet Portrayal in 17 CMIP3 Global Climate Models: Twenty-First-Century Projections Delcambre, Sharon C.; Lorenz, David J.; Vimont, Daniel J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00359.1	journal	July 2013
Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam; Bourdette, Vincent Climate Dynamics, Vol. 38, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x	journal	December 2010
Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000 Durack, P. J.; Wijffels, S. E.; Matear, R. J. Science, Vol. 336, Issue 6080 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1212222	journal	April 2012
Evaluating uncertainties in the prediction of regional climate change Giorgi, Filippo; Francisco, Raquel Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 27, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL011016	journal	May 2000
Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land Greve, Peter; Orlowsky, Boris; Mueller, Brigitte Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2247	journal	September 2014
The response of midlatitude jets to increased CO ₂ : Distinguishing the roles of sea surface temperature and direct radiative forcing : Response of jets to increased CO2 Grise, Kevin M.; Polvani, Lorenzo M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061638	journal	October 2014
Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impacts of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Methodology and a Case Study of Typhoon Nabi (2005) Harr, Patrick A.; Anwender, Doris; Jones, Sarah C. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 136, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2248.1	journal	September 2008
The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change Hawkins, Ed; Sutton, Rowan Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6	journal	April 2010
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming Held, Isaac M.; Soden, Brian J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1	journal	November 2006
Reproducibility of precipitation distribution over the tropical oceans in CMIP5 multi-climate models compared to CMIP3 Hirota, Nagio; Takayabu, Yukari N. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 11-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1839-0	journal	June 2013
Change of mean midlatitude westerlies in 21st century climate simulations Ihara, Chie; Kushnir, Yochanan Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037674	journal	January 2009
Local eigenvalue analysis of CMIP3 climate model errors Jun, Mikyoung; Knutti, Reto; Nychka, Douglas W. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 60, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00356.x	journal	January 2008
Spatial Analysis to Quantify Numerical Model Bias and Dependence: How Many Climate Models Are There? Jun, Mikyoung; Knutti, Reto; Nychka, Douglas W. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 103, Issue 483 https://doi.org/10.1198/016214507000001265	journal	September 2008
Characteristics of the TIGGE multimodel ensemble prediction system in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition: ET IN TIGGE Keller, J. H.; Jones, S. C.; Evans, J. L. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047275	journal	June 2011
Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections Knutti, Reto; Sedláček, Jan Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716	journal	October 2012
Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models Knutti, Reto; Furrer, Reinhard; Tebaldi, Claudia Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1	journal	May 2010
Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there: CLIMATE MODEL GENEALOGY Knutti, Reto; Masson, David; Gettelman, Andrew Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50256	journal	March 2013
Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Trends and Long-Term Persistence in CMIP5 Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations Kumar, Sanjiv; Merwade, Venkatesh; Kinter, James L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00259.1	journal	June 2013
Origins of tropical-wide SST biases in CMIP multi-model ensembles: TROPICAL-WIDE SST BIASES IN MODELS Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053777	journal	November 2012
Tropical Biases in CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue and Double ITCZ Problems Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00337.1	journal	February 2014
The Double-ITCZ Problem in IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs: Ocean–Atmosphere Feedback Analysis Lin, Jia-Lin Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4272.1	journal	September 2007
The North Pacific Oscillation–West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern: Mature-Phase Structure and Winter Impacts Linkin, Megan E.; Nigam, Sumant Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2048.1	journal	May 2008
Amplification of wet and dry month occurrence over tropical land regions in response to global warming: GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION Lintner, Benjamin R.; Biasutti, Michela; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017499	journal	June 2012
Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming Lu, Jian; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028443	journal	January 2007
Perceptible changes in regional precipitation in a future climate: CHANGES IN REGIONAL PRECIPITATION Mahlstein, Irina; Portmann, Robert W.; Daniel, John S. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050738	journal	March 2012
North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments: Part III: Assessment of Twenty-First-Century Projections Maloney, Eric D.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Chang, Edmund Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1	journal	March 2014
THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research Meehl, Gerald A.; Covey, Curt; Delworth, Thomas Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 88, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383	journal	September 2007
Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations: CMIP5 SIMULATIONS AGAINST SATELLITE DATA Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.; Phillips, T. J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021152	journal	February 2014
Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Niño teleconnections: TROPICAL DROUGHT IN GLOBAL WARMING AND ENSO Neelin, J. D.; Chou, C.; Su, H. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018625	journal	December 2003
Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations Neelin, J. D.; Munnich, M.; Su, H. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 103, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601798103	journal	April 2006
California Winter Precipitation Change under Global Warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble Neelin, J. David; Langenbrunner, Baird; Meyerson, Joyce E. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00514.1	journal	September 2013
Southward displacement of the upper atmosphere zonal jet in the eastern north Pacific due to global warming: North Pacific Jet due to Global Warming Park, Jae-Heung; An, Soon-Il Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062175	journal	November 2014
A general framework for understanding the response of the water cycle to global warming over land and ocean Roderick, M. L.; Sun, F.; Lim, W. H. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1575-2014	journal	January 2014
Robust future precipitation declines in CMIP5 largely reflect the poleward expansion of model subtropical dry zones: POLEWARD EXPANSION OF CMIP5 DRY ZONES Scheff, Jack; Frierson, Dargan M. W. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052910	journal	September 2012
Twenty-First-Century Multimodel Subtropical Precipitation Declines Are Mostly Midlatitude Shifts Scheff, Jack; Frierson, Dargan Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00393.1	journal	June 2012
Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydroclimate of southwestern North America Seager, R.; Vecchi, G. A. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 50 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0910856107	journal	December 2010
North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Continental and Regional Climatology Sheffield, Justin; Barrett, Andrew P.; Colle, Brian Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00592.1	journal	December 2013
Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections Shepherd, Theodore G. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2253	journal	September 2014
A Diagnosis of the Seasonally and Longitudinally Varying Midlatitude Circulation Response to Global Warming* Simpson, Isla R.; Shaw, Tiffany A.; Seager, Richard Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 71, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0325.1	journal	July 2014
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections Tebaldi, Claudia; Knutti, Reto Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 365, Issue 1857 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2076	journal	June 2007
Mapping model agreement on future climate projections: MAPPING MODEL AGREEMENT Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M.; Knutti, Reto Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049863	journal	December 2011
Changes in precipitation with climate change Trenberth, Ke Climate Research, Vol. 47, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953	journal	March 2011
Changing Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in an Ensemble of IPCC Climate Change Simulations Ulbrich, U.; Pinto, J. G.; Kupfer, H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1992.1	journal	April 2008
Observed Patterns of Month-to-Month Storm-Track Variability and Their Relationship to the Background Flow* Wettstein, Justin J.; Wallace, John M. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 67, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3194.1	journal	May 2010
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate: POLEWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACKS Yin, Jeffrey H. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023684	journal	September 2005
How well can CMIP5 simulate precipitation and its controlling processes over tropical South America? Yin, Lei; Fu, Rong; Shevliakova, Elena Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 11-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1582-y	journal	November 2012
Double ITCZs Zhang, Chidong Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 106, Issue D11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD900046	journal	June 2001
Ensemble Sensitivity Tools for Assessing Extratropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Predictability Zheng, Minghua; Chang, Edmund K. M.; Colle, Brian A. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 28, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00132.1	journal	October 2013

Cited By (6)

Regional Climate Impacts of Future Changes in the Mid–Latitude Atmospheric Circulation: a Storyline View Zappa, Giuseppe Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 5, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00146-7	journal	November 2019
Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California Swain, Daniel L.; Horton, Daniel E.; Singh, Deepti Science Advances, Vol. 2, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501344	journal	April 2016
Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation Li, Sihan; Rupp, David E.; Hawkins, Linnia Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019	journal	January 2019
Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers Kamae, Youichi; Mei, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab128a	journal	May 2019
Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California Swain, Daniel L.; Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0140-y	journal	April 2018
Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers Gershunov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara; Clemesha, Rachel E. S. Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w	journal	July 2019

Similar Records

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

Journal Article · Mon Jan 23 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · OSTI ID:1470741

Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; +1 more

The Dependence of Mean Climate State on Shortwave Absorption by Water Vapor

Journal Article · Fri Apr 01 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1470741

Kim, Hanjun; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Kang, Sarah M.

A satellite view of the synoptic-scale organization of cloud properties in midlatitude and tropical circulation systems

Journal Article · Sat Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 1995 · Monthly Weather Review · OSTI ID:1470741

Lau, N C; Crane, M W

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Circulation/ Dynamics
Atmospheric circulation
Mathematical and statistical techniques
Empirical orthogonal functions
Models and modeling
Climate models
Coupled models
Model errors
Model evaluation/performance

Title: Patterns of Precipitation Change and Climatological Uncertainty among CMIP5 Models, with a Focus on the Midlatitude Pacific Storm Track

Citation Formats

References (65)

Cited By (6)

Similar Records

Related Subjects