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Title: Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Abstract

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This work examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [1]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom). School of Geographical Sciences
  3. National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
  4. ETH Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC)
  5. Norwegian Meteorological Inst. (MET Norway), Oslo (Norway). Development Center for Weather Forecasting
  6. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Victoria, BC (Canada)
  7. German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)
  8. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23); Research Council of Norway; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Bergen (Norway); Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) (Japan); German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
OSTI Identifier:
1465455
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; 261821
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Dynamics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 1; Related Information: © Author(s) 2018.; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Wehner, Michael, Stone, Dáithí, Mitchell, Dann, Shiogama, Hideo, Fischer, Erich, Graff, Lise S., Kharin, Viatcheslav V., Lierhammer, Ludwig, Sanderson, Benjamin, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018.
Wehner, Michael, Stone, Dáithí, Mitchell, Dann, Shiogama, Hideo, Fischer, Erich, Graff, Lise S., Kharin, Viatcheslav V., Lierhammer, Ludwig, Sanderson, Benjamin, & Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble. United States. doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018.
Wehner, Michael, Stone, Dáithí, Mitchell, Dann, Shiogama, Hideo, Fischer, Erich, Graff, Lise S., Kharin, Viatcheslav V., Lierhammer, Ludwig, Sanderson, Benjamin, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. Wed . "Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble". United States. doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465455.
@article{osti_1465455,
title = {Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble},
author = {Wehner, Michael and Stone, Dáithí and Mitchell, Dann and Shiogama, Hideo and Fischer, Erich and Graff, Lise S. and Kharin, Viatcheslav V. and Lierhammer, Ludwig and Sanderson, Benjamin and Krishnan, Harinarayan},
abstractNote = {The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This work examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-299-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
issn = {2190-4987},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {3}
}

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Cited by: 5 works
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An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model: Event attribution of the 2010 Amazon drought
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design
    journal, January 2017

    • Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017

    Atmospheric component of the MPI-M Earth System Model: ECHAM6: ECHAM6
    journal, April 2013

    • Stevens, Bjorn; Giorgetta, Marco; Esch, Monika
    • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 5, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1002/jame.20015

    Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes
    journal, October 2008


    The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections
    journal, January 2013

    • Iversen, T.; Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013

    Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review
    journal, May 2010


    An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model: Event attribution of the 2010 Amazon drought
    journal, May 2013

    • Shiogama, Hideo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Imada, Yukiko
    • Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1002/asl2.435

    Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate: CLIMATE EXTREMES INDICES IN CMIP5
    journal, February 2013

    • Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zhang, X.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50203

    Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data: Indices for monitoring changes in extremes
    journal, October 2011

    • Zhang, Xuebin; Alexander, Lisa; Hegerl, Gabriele C.
    • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1002/wcc.147

    Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2  °C futures
    journal, January 2017

    • Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia
    • Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 8, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-827-2017

    The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate
    journal, January 2013

    • Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013

    A parametrization of the lateral waterflow for the global scale
    journal, December 1997


    Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations
    journal, January 2014


    Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk
    journal, January 2019


    Impact of the soil hydrology scheme on simulated soil moisture memory
    journal, June 2014


    The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes
    journal, February 2013


    Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5
    journal, January 2016


    Attribution of the June-July 2013 Heat Wave in the Southwestern United States
    journal, January 2014


    Aerosol–climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model – NorESM1-M
    journal, January 2013

    • Kirkevåg, A.; Iversen, T.; Seland, Ø.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-207-2013