Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018

Title: Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Journal Article · Wed Mar 28 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Earth System Dynamics (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018· OSTI ID:1459708

;

; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

Abstract. The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5°C over preindustrial levels to 2.0°C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5°C over present-day values in the 1.5°C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0°C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0°C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); Research Council of Norway; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Bergen (Norway); Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) (Japan); German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; 261821

OSTI ID:: 1459708

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1465455

Journal Information:: Earth System Dynamics (Online), Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online) Vol. 9 Journal Issue: 1; ISSN 2190-4987

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 24 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (29)

Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Corti, Thierry; Davin, Edouard L. Earth-Science Reviews, Vol. 99, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004	journal	May 2010
Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5 Tebaldi, Claudia; Wehner, Michael F. Climatic Change, Vol. 146, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1605-5	journal	January 2016
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections Iversen, T.; Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013	journal	January 2013
Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture‐temperature feedbacks Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071235	journal	February 2017
An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model: Event attribution of the 2010 Amazon drought Shiogama, Hideo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Imada, Yukiko Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.435	journal	May 2013
The Community Climate System Model Version 4 Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1	journal	October 2011
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J. Nature, Vol. 529, Issue 7587 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542	journal	January 2016
The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes von Salzen, Knut; Scinocca, John F.; McFarlane, Norman A. Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 51, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2012.755610	journal	February 2013
Impact of the soil hydrology scheme on simulated soil moisture memory Hagemann, Stefan; Stacke, Tobias Climate Dynamics, Vol. 44, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2221-6	journal	June 2014
Changes in the Extremes in an Ensemble of Transient Climate Simulations with a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean GCM Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Zwiers, Francis W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 13, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3760:CITEIA>2.0.CO;2	journal	November 2000
Representation of natural and anthropogenic land cover change in MPI-ESM: Land Cover in MPI-ESM Reick, C. H.; Raddatz, T.; Brovkin, V. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20022	journal	July 2013
Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project Stone, Dáithí A.; Christidis, Nikolaos; Folland, Chris Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 24 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206	journal	June 2019
Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M. Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9	journal	January 2014
A Mechanism for Land–Atmosphere Feedback Involving Planetary Wave Structures Koster, Randal D.; Chang, Yehui; Schubert, Siegfried D. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00315.1	journal	December 2014
Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2  °C futures Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017	journal	January 2017
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017	journal	January 2017
Early 21st century anthropogenic changes in extremely hot days as simulated by the C20C+ detection and attribution multi-model ensemble Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Shiogama, Hideo Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 20 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.001	journal	June 2018
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013	journal	January 2013
Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data: Indices for monitoring changes in extremes Zhang, Xuebin; Alexander, Lisa; Hegerl, Gabriele C. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147	journal	October 2011
Aerosol–climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model – NorESM1-M Kirkevåg, A.; Iversen, T.; Seland, Ø. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-207-2013	journal	January 2013
Attribution of the June-July 2013 Heat Wave in the Southwestern United States Shiogama, Hideo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Imada, Yukiko SOLA, Vol. 10, Issue 0 https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2014-025	journal	January 2014
OSTIA : An operational, high resolution, real time, global sea surface temperature analysis system Stark, John D.; Donlon, Craig J.; Martin, Matthew J. OCEANS 2007 - Europe https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANSE.2007.4302251	conference	June 2007
A parametrization of the lateral waterflow for the global scale Hagemann, S.; D�menil, L. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050205	journal	December 1997
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1	journal	August 2015
Changes in the Extremes of the Climate Simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO ₂ Doubling Zwiers, Francis W.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V. Journal of Climate, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2200:CITEOT>2.0.CO;2	journal	September 1998
Coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations compared with simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature: effect of a “perfect ocean” Covey, C. Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 41, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2003.09.003	journal	March 2004
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate: CLIMATE EXTREMES INDICES IN CMIP5 Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zhang, X. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203	journal	February 2013
Atmospheric component of the MPI-M Earth System Model: ECHAM6: ECHAM6 Stevens, Bjorn; Giorgetta, Marco; Esch, Monika Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20015	journal	April 2013
Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes Fischer, Erich M.; Schär, Christoph Climate Dynamics, Vol. 33, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0473-8	journal	October 2008

Similar Records

Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

Journal Article · Mon Apr 16 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Earth System Dynamics (Online) · OSTI ID:1459708

Li, Camille; Michel, Clio; Graff, Lise Seland; +14 more

Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

Journal Article · Thu Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Earth's Future · OSTI ID:1459708

Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; +1 more

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

Journal Article · Wed Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Geoscientific Model Development (Online) · OSTI ID:1459708

Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles; +24 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Title: Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Citation Formats

References (29)

Similar Records

Related Subjects

Title: Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble