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Title: Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Technical Report for effort at the University of Texas at Austin Award DE-SC0008083 March 2016 - August 2017

Abstract

Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is accelerating. Although ice sheet models have improved in recent years, much work is needed to make these models robust and efficient on continental scales and to quantify uncertainties in their projected outputs. The University of Texas at Austin's role in the PISCEES project is to provide guidance on how best to apply uncertainty quantification strategies to evaluating uncertainties in simulations of Greenland and Antarctic contributions to sea level rise in response to environmental forcing. Here we report on several activities that involved project members at UTA including Section 2.1 where we provide a broader overview of challenges to use UQ methods on ice ow modeling. Within Section 2.2 we describe the progress and challenges that remain for implementing important aspects of our "end-to-end" UQ work flow. In sum, we had a break-through in realizing the potential for implementing Active Subspace strategies making use of existing experiments exploring the sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet flow to uncertain basal traction parameters. Section 2.3 presents progress that is being made to explore the effect of uncertainties in bed topography on stability of Thwaites basin, West Antarctica, using the BISICLES ice flow model.more » This effort is joint with Dan Martin at LBNL and a graduate student being co-mentored by Jackson. The results provide a compelling test case for the BISICLES ice flow model to address an important science question concerning the role of uncertain boundary conditions on ice sheet contributions to sea level rise.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [1]
  1. Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
  2. Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); New York Univ. (NYU), NY (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23). Climate and Environmental Sciences Division
OSTI Identifier:
1464958
Report Number(s):
DOE-JACKSON-8083
DOE Contract Number:  
SC0008083
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Related Information: Waibel, M. S., Hulbe, C. L., Jackson, C. S., and Martin, D. F. (2018). Rate of mass loss across the instability threshold for Thwaites Glacier determines rate of mass loss for entire basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 809816. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076470Daon, Y., and G. Stadler (2018) Mitigating the influence of boundary conditions on covariance operators derived from elliptic PDEs. Inverse Problems and Imaging 12(5), 1083-1102, doi:10.3934/ipi.2018045.
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; ice sheet modeling; sea level; uncertainty quantification

Citation Formats

Jackson, Charles, Stadler, Georg, and Ghattas, Omar. Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Technical Report for effort at the University of Texas at Austin Award DE-SC0008083 March 2016 - August 2017. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.2172/1464958.
Jackson, Charles, Stadler, Georg, & Ghattas, Omar. Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Technical Report for effort at the University of Texas at Austin Award DE-SC0008083 March 2016 - August 2017. United States. doi:10.2172/1464958.
Jackson, Charles, Stadler, Georg, and Ghattas, Omar. Fri . "Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Technical Report for effort at the University of Texas at Austin Award DE-SC0008083 March 2016 - August 2017". United States. doi:10.2172/1464958. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1464958.
@article{osti_1464958,
title = {Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Technical Report for effort at the University of Texas at Austin Award DE-SC0008083 March 2016 - August 2017},
author = {Jackson, Charles and Stadler, Georg and Ghattas, Omar},
abstractNote = {Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is accelerating. Although ice sheet models have improved in recent years, much work is needed to make these models robust and efficient on continental scales and to quantify uncertainties in their projected outputs. The University of Texas at Austin's role in the PISCEES project is to provide guidance on how best to apply uncertainty quantification strategies to evaluating uncertainties in simulations of Greenland and Antarctic contributions to sea level rise in response to environmental forcing. Here we report on several activities that involved project members at UTA including Section 2.1 where we provide a broader overview of challenges to use UQ methods on ice ow modeling. Within Section 2.2 we describe the progress and challenges that remain for implementing important aspects of our "end-to-end" UQ work flow. In sum, we had a break-through in realizing the potential for implementing Active Subspace strategies making use of existing experiments exploring the sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet flow to uncertain basal traction parameters. Section 2.3 presents progress that is being made to explore the effect of uncertainties in bed topography on stability of Thwaites basin, West Antarctica, using the BISICLES ice flow model. This effort is joint with Dan Martin at LBNL and a graduate student being co-mentored by Jackson. The results provide a compelling test case for the BISICLES ice flow model to address an important science question concerning the role of uncertain boundary conditions on ice sheet contributions to sea level rise.},
doi = {10.2172/1464958},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {8}
}