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Title: Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

Abstract

This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0°C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5°C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5°C of warming include a poleward shift of themore » North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2°C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5];  [6]; ORCiD logo [4];  [2];  [3];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11]; ORCiD logo [12];  [13]
  1. Univ. of Bergen, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  2. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway)
  3. Uni Climate, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  4. Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)
  5. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)
  6. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
  7. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  8. German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)
  9. Univ. of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom)
  10. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria (Canada)
  11. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan)
  12. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, Oxford (United Kingdom)
  13. Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Univ. of Bergen, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1462975
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Dynamics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 2; Related Information: © 2016 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Li, Camille, Michel, Clio, Graff, Lise Seland, Bethke, Ingo, Zappa, Giuseppe, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Fischer, Erich, Harvey, Ben J., Iversen, Trond, King, Martin P., Krishnan, Harinarayan, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Mitchell, Daniel, Scinocca, John, Shiogama, Hideo, Stone, Daithi A., and Wettstein, Justin J. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-359-2018.
Li, Camille, Michel, Clio, Graff, Lise Seland, Bethke, Ingo, Zappa, Giuseppe, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Fischer, Erich, Harvey, Ben J., Iversen, Trond, King, Martin P., Krishnan, Harinarayan, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Mitchell, Daniel, Scinocca, John, Shiogama, Hideo, Stone, Daithi A., & Wettstein, Justin J. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018
Li, Camille, Michel, Clio, Graff, Lise Seland, Bethke, Ingo, Zappa, Giuseppe, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Fischer, Erich, Harvey, Ben J., Iversen, Trond, King, Martin P., Krishnan, Harinarayan, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Mitchell, Daniel, Scinocca, John, Shiogama, Hideo, Stone, Daithi A., and Wettstein, Justin J. Mon . "Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1462975.
@article{osti_1462975,
title = {Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts},
author = {Li, Camille and Michel, Clio and Graff, Lise Seland and Bethke, Ingo and Zappa, Giuseppe and Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Fischer, Erich and Harvey, Ben J. and Iversen, Trond and King, Martin P. and Krishnan, Harinarayan and Lierhammer, Ludwig and Mitchell, Daniel and Scinocca, John and Shiogama, Hideo and Stone, Daithi A. and Wettstein, Justin J.},
abstractNote = {This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0°C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5°C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5°C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2°C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-359-2018},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1462975}, journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
issn = {2190-4987},
number = 2,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {4}
}

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Works referenced in this record:

Changes in the Extratropical Storm Tracks in Response to Changes in SST in an AGCM
journal, March 2012


Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models
journal, July 2013


Seasonal Sensitivity of the Eddy-Driven Jet to Tropospheric Heating in an Idealized AGCM
journal, July 2016


CMIP5 Diversity in Southern Westerly Jet Projections Related to Historical Sea Ice Area: Strong Link to Strengthening and Weak Link to Shift
journal, January 2018


A New Perspective on Southern Hemisphere Storm Tracks
journal, October 2005


Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change
journal, August 2016


Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change
journal, October 2011


The Steady-State Atmospheric Circulation Response to Climate Change–like Thermal Forcings in a Simple General Circulation Model
journal, July 2010


The Mean Climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in Forced SST and Fully Coupled Experiments
journal, July 2013


Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream
journal, April 2010

  • Woollings, Tim; Hannachi, Abdel; Hoskins, Brian
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 136, Issue 649
  • https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.625

The Role of Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling in the Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss
journal, March 2015


The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections
journal, January 2013


A Diagnosis of the Seasonally and Longitudinally Varying Midlatitude Circulation Response to Global Warming*
journal, July 2014


A Multimodel Assessment of Future Projections of North Atlantic and European Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Climate Models
journal, August 2013


North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature: Local versus Remote Influences
journal, October 2016


Eddy-Driven Jet Sensitivity to Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM
journal, August 2017


How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?: STORM TRACK VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
journal, September 2012


CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming: CMIP5 MODEL-PROJECTED STORM TRACK CHANGE
journal, December 2012


World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated [World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated]
journal, July 2006


Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2  °C futures
journal, January 2017


Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models
journal, September 2013


The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe: SUMMER NAO IN CMIP3 MODELS
journal, August 2012


Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming
journal, January 2007


Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks
journal, February 2015


Causes of Increasing Aridification of the Mediterranean Region in Response to Rising Greenhouse Gases
journal, June 2014


Storm Tracks and Climate Change
journal, August 2006


Changing Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in an Ensemble of IPCC Climate Change Simulations
journal, April 2008


Impacts of global warming on Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in the CMIP5 model suite: GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS ON STORM TRACKS
journal, May 2013


The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present)
journal, December 2003


An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model: Event attribution of the 2010 Amazon drought
journal, May 2013


Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate
journal, September 2015


The Storm-Track Response to Idealized SST Perturbations in an Aquaplanet GCM
journal, September 2008


Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design
journal, January 2017


Diagnosing Northern Hemisphere Jet Portrayal in 17 CMIP3 Global Climate Models: Twenty-First-Century Projections
journal, July 2013


Aerosol–climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model – NorESM1-M
journal, January 2013


Phase Speed Spectra and the Latitude of Surface Westerlies: Interannual Variability and Global Warming Trend
journal, November 2008


Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
journal, November 2006


The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
journal, April 2011


The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change
journal, October 2015


The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes
journal, February 2013


Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling
journal, April 2012


Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations: ZONAL WIND RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING
journal, May 2007


Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project
journal, June 2019


Tropical origins for recent and future Northern Hemisphere climate change: TROPICAL ORIGINS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
journal, November 2004


Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming
journal, February 2018


Can the Increase in the Eddy Length Scale under Global Warming Cause the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams?
journal, July 2011


The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate
journal, January 2013


Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
journal, December 2010


Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models
journal, December 2014


Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals
journal, June 2018


The Position of the Midlatitude Storm Track and Eddy-Driven Westerlies in Aquaplanet AGCMs
journal, December 2010


Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections
journal, September 2014


Simple Uncertainty Frameworks for Selecting Weighting Schemes and Interpreting Multimodel Ensemble Climate Change Experiments
journal, June 2013


The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns
journal, February 2012


Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate
text, January 2016


The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections
journal, January 2012


    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design
    journal, January 2017


    Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models
    journal, September 2013


    The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change
    journal, October 2015


    Tropical origins for recent and future Northern Hemisphere climate change: TROPICAL ORIGINS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
    journal, November 2004


    An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model: Event attribution of the 2010 Amazon drought
    journal, May 2013


    Diagnosing Northern Hemisphere Jet Portrayal in 17 CMIP3 Global Climate Models: Twenty-First-Century Projections
    journal, July 2013


    North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature: Local versus Remote Influences
    journal, October 2016


    The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate
    journal, January 2013


    Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections
    journal, September 2014


    A Diagnosis of the Seasonally and Longitudinally Varying Midlatitude Circulation Response to Global Warming*
    journal, July 2014


    Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming
    journal, February 2018


    Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals
    journal, June 2018


    Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream
    journal, April 2010

    • Woollings, Tim; Hannachi, Abdel; Hoskins, Brian
    • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 136, Issue 649
    • https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.625

    Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
    journal, November 2006


    The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes
    journal, February 2013


    Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling
    journal, April 2012


    Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations: ZONAL WIND RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING
    journal, May 2007


    Eddy-Driven Jet Sensitivity to Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM
    journal, August 2017


    Aerosol–climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model – NorESM1-M
    journal, January 2013


    Can the Increase in the Eddy Length Scale under Global Warming Cause the Poleward Shift of the Jet Streams?
    journal, July 2011


    World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated [World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated]
    journal, July 2006


    Changing Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in an Ensemble of IPCC Climate Change Simulations
    journal, April 2008


    The Role of Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling in the Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss
    journal, March 2015


    The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections
    journal, January 2013


    Simple Uncertainty Frameworks for Selecting Weighting Schemes and Interpreting Multimodel Ensemble Climate Change Experiments
    journal, June 2013


    The Mean Climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in Forced SST and Fully Coupled Experiments
    journal, July 2013


    The North Atlantic Jet Stream under Climate Change and Its Relation to the NAO and EA Patterns
    journal, February 2012


    Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change
    journal, August 2016


    The Position of the Midlatitude Storm Track and Eddy-Driven Westerlies in Aquaplanet AGCMs
    journal, December 2010


    Changes in the Extratropical Storm Tracks in Response to Changes in SST in an AGCM
    journal, March 2012


    Impacts of global warming on Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in the CMIP5 model suite: GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS ON STORM TRACKS
    journal, May 2013


    Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2  °C futures
    journal, January 2017


    How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?: STORM TRACK VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
    journal, September 2012


    The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
    journal, April 2011


    Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models
    journal, July 2013


    Phase Speed Spectra and the Latitude of Surface Westerlies: Interannual Variability and Global Warming Trend
    journal, November 2008


    The Steady-State Atmospheric Circulation Response to Climate Change–like Thermal Forcings in a Simple General Circulation Model
    journal, July 2010


    Causes of Increasing Aridification of the Mediterranean Region in Response to Rising Greenhouse Gases
    journal, June 2014


    Seasonal Sensitivity of the Eddy-Driven Jet to Tropospheric Heating in an Idealized AGCM
    journal, July 2016


    Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate
    journal, September 2015


    CMIP5 Diversity in Southern Westerly Jet Projections Related to Historical Sea Ice Area: Strong Link to Strengthening and Weak Link to Shift
    journal, January 2018


    CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming: CMIP5 MODEL-PROJECTED STORM TRACK CHANGE
    journal, December 2012


    The Storm-Track Response to Idealized SST Perturbations in an Aquaplanet GCM
    journal, September 2008


    A Multimodel Assessment of Future Projections of North Atlantic and European Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Climate Models
    journal, August 2013


    On the potential impact of a half-degree warming on cold and warm temperature extremes in mid-latitude North America
    journal, December 2019


    Role of climate model dynamics in estimated climate responses to anthropogenic aerosols
    journal, January 2019


    Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018
    journal, January 2019


    Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi
    journal, January 2019