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Title: Will Vehicle Automation Accelerate or Decelerate Electrification: Modeling Demand for Automated Electric Vehicles

Abstract

Automation may induce more travel demand, posing a threat to energy security and environmental quality unless the induced travel demand is served with more efficient or clean fuel technologies. This study attempts to analyze whether automation may promote or discourage market acceptance of plug-in electric vehicles. A consumer choice model called MA3T-MC is developed to cover automated vehicles by expanding the existing MA3T model that focuses only on fuel type choices. Key findings include: 1) automation may increase sales shares of gasoline conventional vehicles and decrease shares of efficient vehicles including HEVs and PHEVs, due to greater energy cost savings for less efficient vehicles. 2) Automation may increase market shares of BEVs, due to the “free” range extension from the efficiency improvement by automation. 3) consumer heterogeneity is important in quantifying the national impact of automation on sales shares by fuel types and the total energy use.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. ORNL
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1460188
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: 2018 Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting - Washington DC, District of Columbia, United States of America - 1/7/2018 5:00:00 AM-1/11/2018 5:00:00 AM
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Lin, Zhenhong, and Xie, Fei. Will Vehicle Automation Accelerate or Decelerate Electrification: Modeling Demand for Automated Electric Vehicles. United States: N. p., 2018. Web.
Lin, Zhenhong, & Xie, Fei. Will Vehicle Automation Accelerate or Decelerate Electrification: Modeling Demand for Automated Electric Vehicles. United States.
Lin, Zhenhong, and Xie, Fei. Mon . "Will Vehicle Automation Accelerate or Decelerate Electrification: Modeling Demand for Automated Electric Vehicles". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1460188.
@article{osti_1460188,
title = {Will Vehicle Automation Accelerate or Decelerate Electrification: Modeling Demand for Automated Electric Vehicles},
author = {Lin, Zhenhong and Xie, Fei},
abstractNote = {Automation may induce more travel demand, posing a threat to energy security and environmental quality unless the induced travel demand is served with more efficient or clean fuel technologies. This study attempts to analyze whether automation may promote or discourage market acceptance of plug-in electric vehicles. A consumer choice model called MA3T-MC is developed to cover automated vehicles by expanding the existing MA3T model that focuses only on fuel type choices. Key findings include: 1) automation may increase sales shares of gasoline conventional vehicles and decrease shares of efficient vehicles including HEVs and PHEVs, due to greater energy cost savings for less efficient vehicles. 2) Automation may increase market shares of BEVs, due to the “free” range extension from the efficiency improvement by automation. 3) consumer heterogeneity is important in quantifying the national impact of automation on sales shares by fuel types and the total energy use.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {1}
}

Conference:
Other availability
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