Bayesian characterization of explosive sources using infrasonic signals
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
In this paper, a Bayesian approach is applied to the estimation of source characteristics for above ground explosive events using infrasonic observations at propagation distances of hundreds of kilometers. Propagation-based, stochastic path geometry models have previously been investigated for infrasonic source localization with promising results; here, statistical transmission loss models are investigated using archived atmospheric specifications and propagation simulation tools to demonstrate that such an approach is applicable to source characterization. The resulting transmission loss models models are utilized in estimating near-source spectral characteristics for explosive events from infrasonic observations at regional distances of several hundred kilometers or more using a Bayesian framework to compute a combined estimate. The near-source spectral characterization can be used along with a simplistic explosive source model to compute an estimate of explosive yield with quantifiable uncertainty. Finally, the yield estimation framework is evaluated using above-ground explosive events from the western US during the fall of 2012 with promising results.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 1459832
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-18-20546
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 215, Issue 1; ISSN 0956-540X
- Publisher:
- Oxford University PressCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Web of Science
Seismoacoustic Analysis of Chemical Explosions at the Nevada National Security Site
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journal | January 2019 |
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